Global Markets

Summary Closing remaining long (OTM) call position on VIX initiated in February of 2023 Half of the original position at a big profit in March, when banking panic ensued VIX call position has strike of 20 and expires on 10/18/2023   Taking Advantage of Recent Surge in Volatility to Close Our VIX Call Position We’re […]

Summary We’re initiating a long 4.2% position in out-of-the-money (OTM) call on the SPY ETF. The objective is to eliminate melt-up risk in equities given that we have no exposure to the S&P 500 in our Model Portfolio. While stocks could continue moving lower in the short-term, we’re not looking to time the market in […]

Summary Closing long position on Chinese stocks (MCHI) Stop-Loss was triggered at a close below $44.50 We’ll reconsider re-opening the trade if a more decisive policy response is brought forward China’s Policy Response Proves Insufficient We’re closing our long position on Chinese stocks (MCHI) as the price closed below our stop-loss level of $44.50 on […]

Summary Initiating 1% long out-of-the-money (OTM) put position on TLT Insuring against TLT falling to pre-financial crisis support of $82 $85 Strike with February 2024 Expiration Term Premium Emerges as New Tail Risk for Bonds We’re initiating a 1% long put position on TLT to hedge against significant new tail risks emerging for U.S. Treasury […]

Initiating 5% Long Position on Turkish stocks (TUR) Target is set at $46, with a stop loss at $29.90 Adding Turkish Equities to Our Model Portfolio We’re initiating a 5% long position on Turkish stocks through the TUR ETF (iShares MSCI Turkey). In a note posted yesterday, we laid out our constructive thesis on Turkish […]

• Initiating 5% Long Position on Chinese stocks (MCHI) Adding Chinese Stocks to Our Model Portfolio We’re initiating a 5% long position on Chinese equities through the MCHI ETF. In a note posted about a month ago we laid out our investment thesis for Chinese stocks. We believe they offer significant upside if the authorities […]

Initiating 5% Long Position on Gold Miners (GDX) Adding 5% to Silver (SLV) Buying Gold Upside Through Gold Miners (GDX) We’re initiating a 5% long position on Gold Miners through the GDX ETF. We posted a Macro Note yesterday highlighting opportunity in recent weakness in Gold Miners (GDX) and Silver (SLV) due to May’s countertrend […]

Initiating 5% Short Position on Tech (XLK) Dipping Our Toes on a Short Tech Trade We’re initiating a 5% short position on Tech through the XLK ETF. Last week we posted a Macro Note pointing out that Tech is a vulnerable sector in the recession we anticipate later this year. Tomorrow we’ll post a second […]

Closing 3.1% Position on Bitcoin (BTC) and Moving Proceeds to Cash Taking Profits on Bitcoin, The Cryptocurrency Isn’t a Recession Hedge In today’s Macro Note, we make the case for closing our Bitcoin allocation in our Model Portfolio. Please refer to it for the details. Bitcoin is pricing in a scenario where fears of a […]

Closing 4.7% Position on Korean Stocks (EWY) and Moving Proceeds to Cash (BIL) No Upside for Korean Stocks, Better Opportunities Elsewhere We added Korean stocks (EWY) to our portfolio in late-November as a bet that China’s removal of Zero Covid policies would stimulate global growth and our expectations of a weakening dollar. Our view came […]