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History Shows the USD and Stock Market Can Both Move Lower | Coming Recession Means Boring Portfolio

03/28/2023 0

History Shows the USD and Stock Market Can Both Move Lower | Coming Recession Means Boring Portfolio

Model Portfolio Last updated: March 25, 2023 i Our investment horizon is 6-12 months, and the Model Portfolio synthesizes our Strategic and Tactical research into a simple and transparent vehicle that expresses our bets.

The portfolio's objective is to maximize the risk reward across the various opportunities derived from our research - it's a collection of our best bets and protection against major tail risks to the economy.

We use the S&P500 as our performance benchmark and update our portfolio depending on the outcome of our ongoing research.

As of: 03/25/23 Notifications

Commodities
20.4%

Bonds
35%

Options
0.9%

Cash
43.8%

Insights i Our research features a Strategic and Tactical component:

The Strategic component formulates our investment thesis that has a horizon of six-to-12 months. The approach is top-down, contextualizing the macroeconomic backdrop with historical analysis. To do that, we leverage our extensive quantitative capabilities. We seek to understand the fundamental dynamics operating across markets and exploit big dislocations.

The Tactical component leverages our expertise in technical analysis to highlight attractive and actionable setups that best express the views derived from our strategic research. We look for opportunities that maximize the risk-reward.

Tactical Watchlist i The Watchlist features our regularly updated assets with potential favorable risk: reward ratios (long or short).

The expected targets and ratings are derived from quantitative analysis work and are based on 6-12 month investment horizons. For example, in the case of the S&P 500, the expected target is a function of our forecasts for earnings growth and P/E valuation multiples. Our technical analysis work also vets the targets.

We update the Watchlist depending on the outcome of our ongoing research.

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