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Summary The 4% correction in the S&P 500 seen in August creates opportunities for bearish investors to hedge at relatively-low […] To access this content please upgrade to another membership

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Key Developments The S&P 500 declined 2.1% last week, with higher interest rates continuing to weigh on the growth heavy index. Consumer Discretionary lagged, down 4.1%, while Info Tech was the largest outperformer, falling only 0.8%. Treasury bonds came under pressure, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at the highest level since 2007 on Thursday […]

Summary Sharply higher Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar have caused precious metals to endure a steep correction over […] To access this content please upgrade to another membership

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We have two new activations over the past week, while AAPL and IWM have now hit their second targets, and XLRE and CRM first targets. New Activations: Long MRK Long DIS Previous Activations Short NVDA Short XLRE (Tgt 1 hit) Short CRM (Tgt 1 hit) Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 hit) Short IWM (Tgt […]

Summary Closing long position on Chinese stocks (MCHI) Stop-Loss was triggered at a close below $44.50 We’ll reconsider re-opening the trade if a more decisive policy response is brought forward China’s Policy Response Proves Insufficient We’re closing our long position on Chinese stocks (MCHI) as the price closed below our stop-loss level of $44.50 on […]

Summary Bitcoin offers a potential hedge to our recession call. We believe it’d outperform stocks if a soft landing materializes. […] To access this content please upgrade to another membership

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If you missed it, we provided an introductory video that summarizes the Trader Membership and its strategy. We have two new setups this week. New Setups VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Natural Gas Future (NG1) Asset Classes Equities Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK): Pending → Active (turned active 8/11) Walt Disney Co. (DIS): Pending→ Active […]

Key Developments The S&P 500 declined 0.3% last week, as Energy led all sectors for the second straight week, up 3.5%. Information Technology was the prominent sector laggard, down 2.9%. A continued move higher in bond yields kept the pressure on growth and Technology stocks, whose valuations tend to be more vulnerable to higher rates. […]

Summary Initiating 1% long out-of-the-money (OTM) put position on TLT Insuring against TLT falling to pre-financial crisis support of $82 $85 Strike with February 2024 Expiration Term Premium Emerges as New Tail Risk for Bonds We’re initiating a 1% long put position on TLT to hedge against significant new tail risks emerging for U.S. Treasury […]

Summary Equity valuations are now reacting negatively to higher real interest rates since the beginning of August, after ignoring them […] To access this content please upgrade to another membership

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