Weekly Active Setups

We have no new activations over the prior week.

Stocks have rebounded over the past week as yields have took a nose dive, helping alleviate some valuation pressures. This has caused some short trades to rebound.

NVDA and DIS hit their stop loss levels on a closing basis, so the trades are now closed. Palladium was removed due to continued unattractive technical behavior.

Previous Activations

• Short Bitcoin
• Short Natural Gas
• Short WMT
• Long DIS (Trade closed, stop loss has been hit)
• Long MRK (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short NVDA (Trade closed, stop loss has been hit)
• Short XLRE (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short CRM (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Short IWM (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Short SPY (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short NFLX (Tgt 1 hit)
• Long MCHI (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short XLY (Tgt 1 hit)
• Long Palladium (while the trade has not hit its stop loss, the trading action remains bearish as it has been unable to break above the 50-DMA on several attempts, so we take the trade off the active list).

 

Short Bitcoin (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The short set up was triggered on August 16 with a break below the trendline. Bitcoin had a sharp move lower since then, hitting the first target two days later, and falling below the 200-DMA.

-Price has surged higher above the 200-DMA this week on the back of optimism of a Bitcoin spot ETF given the Federal court ruling on Tuesday which said the SEC must reconsider their application for an ETF.

Short WMT

-The short trade activated on August 16 with a fall below the trendline.

-Price briefly fell below the 20 and 50-DMA, but has climbed back above those levels recently as the markets have rebounded.

Short Natural Gas (Tgt 1 Hit)

-A break below the trendline on August 23 activated the short trade.

-Natural gas futures hit the first target, but ricocheted back higher above the trendline and 50-DMA after a storage report indicated a much larger increase than expected.

Long MRK (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade activated on August 11 with a move above the short-term trendline.

-Price has held above both the moving averages, a bullish sign.

Short XLRE (Tgt 1 Hit)

-A break below the horizontal resistance line on August 3 activated the short trade.

-XLRE hit the first target Wednesday August 16, allowing traders to take some profits.

-XLRE has rebounded sharply given its sensitivity to interest rates, as 10-year yields having fallen 20 basis points in the past week.

Short CRM (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade activated on August 2 with a break below the trendline starting in December of 2022.

-Despite the broad market rally, CRM has been unable to breach above its 50-DMA.

Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since March.

-With the rest of Tech stocks, AAPL has seen a strong rebound after being one of our best short trades – price is now slightly above the 50-DMA, where it could still see some resistance.

Short IWM (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline from the beginning of July.

-IWM bounce off its 200-DMA has continued, but is now testing the 50-DMA, where it could see some resistance.

Short SPY (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since May.

-Price has reversed higher above the 50-DMA, with the fall in yields providing some relief for valuations.

Short NFLX (Tgt 1 hit)

-The break below the upward trendline on July 20 activated the short trade as NFLX had lackluster earnings results.

-NFLX fell slightly below the price channel after it hit target 1, but has rebounded back into the price channel.

Long MCHI (Tgt 1 Hit)

-Stimulus measures vowed by the Chinese government helped MCHI breakout above the trendline and activate the long trade on July 26.

-Further stimulus measures over the weekend helped Chinese stocks rally this week, but price is now closing to hitting the downward sloping 50-DMA and upward trendline resistance.

Short XLY (Tgt 1 Hit)

-XLY broke below the trendline which activated the short trade on July 20.

-Short-term head and shoulders top pattern led to downside, with price hitting target 1.

-Price has reversed higher with the latest rally in growth stocks, with XLY now above the 50-DMA.