We have three new activations over the prior week, GOOG, AMZN and ADBE.
Key Highlights: Stocks have continued lower following the September FOMC meeting, including IWM falling below target 3 and AAPL below target 2.
New Activations
- Short GOOG
- Short AMZN
- Short ADBE
Previous Activations
- Short ITB
- Long Corn Future
- Short XLV
- Short Bitcoin (Tgt 1 hit)
- Short Natural Gas
- Short WMT (The trade has ben stopped out).
- Long MRK (Tgt 1 hit)
- Short XLRE (Tgt 1 hit)
- Short CRM (Tgt 1 hit)
- Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
- Short IWM (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
- Short SPY (Tgt 1 hit)
- Short NFLX (Tgt 1 hit)
- Long MCHI (Tgt 1 hit)
- Short XLY (Tgt 1 hit)
-The trade turned active on September 20 with a break below the trendline.
-The negative reaction to the September FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell appeared hawkish, sent growth stocks lower and interest rates higher.
-A continued move lower would see price break the 50-DMA, where target 1 would then be a higher probability.
-The trade turned active on September 20 with a break below the trendline.
-The negative reaction to the September FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell appeared hawkish, sent growth stocks lower and interest rates higher.
-The setup turned active on September 15 with a move below the trendline.
-Price is hovering on top of the trendline after briefly recovering above it and the 50-DMA, which looks so far like a false breakdown.
-The trade activated on September 13 with a move below the trendline.
-Price retested the trendline, but failed, and closed back below the 100-DMA.
-The trade activated on September 11 with a move above the downward trendline.
-Price briefly fell almost below the stop loss level, but reversed sharply higher as it nears the 50-DMA and target 1.
-The trade turned active with a break below the trendline on September 5.
-Price has fallen back below both moving averages after briefly rebounding above them last week.
Short Bitcoin (Tgt 1 Hit)
-The short set up was triggered on August 16 with a break below the trendline. Bitcoin had a sharp move lower since then, hitting the first target two days later, and falling below the 200-DMA.
-Bitcoin was within a few points of hitting the second target this week, but price rebounded back towards target 1. It is now testing the downward sloping 50-DMA.
Short Natural Gas (Tgt 1 hit)
-A break below the trendline on August 23 activated the short trade.
-Price has continued to trade around the trendline, recently rejecting the downward sloping 200-DMA.
Long MRK (Tgt 1 Hit)
-The trade activated on August 11 with a move above the short-term trendline.
-MRK is continuing to hover around the 50-DMA, while the broad market has pulled back in recent days.
Short XLRE (Tgt 1 Hit)
-A break below the horizontal resistance line on August 3 activated the short trade.
-XLRE hit the first target Wednesday August 16, allowing traders to take some profits. After briefly going back above target 1 and the trendline, it has now fallen back below it.
Short CRM (Tgt 1 Hit)
-The trade activated on August 2 with a break below the trendline starting in December of 2022.
-CRM rose back above its 50-DMA recently on better-than-expected earnings, but has not seen any more follow through to the upside since then as it is currently back below the 50-DMA.
Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)
-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since March.
-AAPL’s investor day did not stoke renewed confidence, with the stock now retracing the recent rebound entirely as it moves back below target 2, allowing traders to take profits if they have not already done so.
Short IWM (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)
-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline from the beginning of July.
-Small caps are seeing outsized weakness, with IWM now falling back below the 200-DMA, and closing in on target 3. Traders should consider booking the strong gains if markets continue lower in coming days.
Short SPY (Tgt 1 Hit)
-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since May.
-SPY has fallen back below the 50-DMA as the September FOMC meeting spooked markets given hawkish commentary from Chair Powell.
Short NFLX (Tgt 1 hit)
-The break below the upward trendline on July 20 activated the short trade as NFLX had lackluster earnings results.
-Significant move below the price channel on September 13 is a material change in the previous bullish technical structure. That move is continuing as price fell below target 1, closing in on target 2.
Long MCHI (Tgt 1 Hit)
-Stimulus measures vowed by the Chinese government helped MCHI breakout above the trendline and activate the long trade on July 26.
-MCHI remains below 50 and 100-DMAs, with recent stimulus measures not provoking much confidence for Chinese stocks.
Short XLY (Tgt 1 Hit)
-XLY broke below the trendline which activated the short trade on July 20.
-Price has been whipsawing between above and below the 50-DMA, with it now back below it again.
