GOT

Summary: Real interest rates and the dollar went up significantly this year. These outcomes usually lead to a drop in […] To access this content please upgrade to another membership

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Summary: The underperformance of tech this year is a rare occurrence by the standards of the last several years. We […] To access this content please upgrade to another membership

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Summary: Consumer sentiment is at all-time lows and stagflation fears abound. But in nearly 70 years of data the equity market has generally done well when consumer pessimism has been this bad. We assessed the health of the consumer and believe there is a good chance they’ll ride out the inflation storm. While goods spending […]

Oil: From Inflation’s Friend to Foe Inflation is one of the most difficult macroeconomic variables to forecast, as evidenced by many PhDs at the Fed and in Wall Street getting it very wrong last year. Even now, more than two years after the onset of the pandemic, it’s only gotten more difficult to prognosticate. To […]

All Eyes on the 2-Year Treasury Yield We’ve been of the view that the 2-year Treasury yield is worth watching […] To access this content please upgrade to another membership

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