The educational effort and content on the channel are appreciated and worth it, but I believe the market got a lot of opportunities that I think slipped away from us just because we are focussing on btcusd to resume the bull run, since May we did not have real trade except the spx which doing great, If we can have a sample asset allocation wallet as a guide and to measure the performance of the channel recommendations.
@Walhamdi99 Thanks for the feedback! However I would disagree on that statement regarding Bitcoin, the asset is up 58% since May which is far superior to SP500 performance and if the trade plays out as expected returns could far exceed those numbers in a few months.
Some of us entered bitcoin around the target you gave us back in November, $53-54k. I’m actually down almost 20% on my investment. I truly hope your theory plays out. It’s not looking good right now.
Hang in there. It’s volatile much more to the upside than down. Right now it’s peak fear… not the right time to sell. If it’s too volatile an asset to hold. Just remember to sell when it starts mooning.
Peter content is great, no doubts. But I’d rather mention sth else. You offered a significant 30% discount for new members during Black Friday and promised a similar action dedicated for those being already on board in near future. Time run fast but nothing has appeared 😉
I think many of members would really appreciate it considering prolongation of subscription
Best regards
One thing I’ve been looking at is that towards the end of 2020 as the big move up in bitcoin began and continued into early 2021, yields began to rise significantly but the dollar rose temporarily and then dropped and bottom around Jan 6th. The divergence of the dollar and yields seamed to act as rocket fuel to the move up.
Right now yields have moved up and bitcoin is still ranging…. the dollar hasn’t moved down — at least yet.
Curious to hear your take on the correlation between rising yields, dropping dollar and its impact on bitcoins price and whether its perhaps not just yields fuelling the big moves and bitcoin but the relationship between the dollar and yields.
Why not include 2018 on your chart with Yields and BTC price? If you did, you’d see that from Jan 2018 – Nov 2018 10 Yr yields rose from 2.41% to 3.24 % – a 34% increase. During that same period Bitcoin fell from $17,176 to $5,600- a decline of 67%. Keep in mind the 4 year halving cycle and how best years are 2013, 2017 and late 2020-early 2021. This history would suggest that the best growth for this cycle is behind us. Now add in a lack of new buyers, less free money, tightening on the horizon, rising inflation and risk deleveraging (already occurring in the market) and the outlook for Bitcoin is not as attractive.
Great question! We covered this in one of our previous Crypto articles. The other major influence on Bitcoin’s price movements is the spread between long term and short term holders. The yield vs bitcoin correlation typically breaks when the spread is at extremes (ie: when the market has been too hot like towards the end of 2017 or too weak like in 2019): https://www.gameoftrades.net/btc-weekly-overview-price-action-on-chain-cross-asset-6/
I do think that the best growth of the cycle is behind us as you say. We won’t be seeing the type of 10x returns that we saw in 2020-2021, more likely 2-3X before the end of the run. History suggests that the beginning of the tightening cycle only tends to trigger temporary risk-off market moves (like we are currently seeing on equities) but do not derail the broader trend of reflation until later in the cycle.
After the first 2-3 rate hikes, the risk-reward on risk assets will be much less favourable (in fact, quite dangerous).
Of course, this is our personal take on the market. There are plenty of narratives out there which call for Bitcoin’s downfall in 2022.
Hang in buddy. Bull run returning in a few weeks hopefully. You can reduce your exposure then. Start small. Build conviction and understand what a great asset it is.
Bitcoin is a speculative asset. There is no product. The massive gains for early adopters is long gone. Hopefully your portfolio isn’t 100% bitcoin even the last few years have had massive swings.
Hi Peter, I have a question about Microvision regarding their 100k+ bitcoins holdings. With a short float around 19%, I’m curious if a Bitcoin run would have an impact on the stock price of companies that hold large sums of Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Thanks friend!
Would really like more frequent updates for Bitcoin as the moves over the last few days have been very counter to the narrative of the stories. Is our bull thesis still intact?
Have u also run data on the correlation between BTC and NASDAQ/S&P 500, which look pretty positively correlated in the last few week that cause the downturn of BTC. In the case of tightening with higher yield, BTC might crash, which would be opposite to our expectation now for higher yield with a higher BTC price.
Peter
I do see how you correlate BTC to the 10yr yields, but it seems like like right BTC is aligning with the indices. With that in mind, do you think that the FED stating that they are going to start reducing their balance sheet will have a huge impact on crypto prices? It seems a little crazy that with the amount of money they have in the system right now, that it will crash the market when they start pulling out.
The educational effort and content on the channel are appreciated and worth it, but I believe the market got a lot of opportunities that I think slipped away from us just because we are focussing on btcusd to resume the bull run, since May we did not have real trade except the spx which doing great, If we can have a sample asset allocation wallet as a guide and to measure the performance of the channel recommendations.
best regards.
@Walhamdi99 Thanks for the feedback! However I would disagree on that statement regarding Bitcoin, the asset is up 58% since May which is far superior to SP500 performance and if the trade plays out as expected returns could far exceed those numbers in a few months.
Some of us entered bitcoin around the target you gave us back in November, $53-54k. I’m actually down almost 20% on my investment. I truly hope your theory plays out. It’s not looking good right now.
Hang in there. It’s volatile much more to the upside than down. Right now it’s peak fear… not the right time to sell. If it’s too volatile an asset to hold. Just remember to sell when it starts mooning.
certainly scary, but im finding wine is helping me stay away from the sell button
Peter content is great, no doubts. But I’d rather mention sth else. You offered a significant 30% discount for new members during Black Friday and promised a similar action dedicated for those being already on board in near future. Time run fast but nothing has appeared 😉
I think many of members would really appreciate it considering prolongation of subscription
Best regards
Thanks Peter. Great content as always.
One thing I’ve been looking at is that towards the end of 2020 as the big move up in bitcoin began and continued into early 2021, yields began to rise significantly but the dollar rose temporarily and then dropped and bottom around Jan 6th. The divergence of the dollar and yields seamed to act as rocket fuel to the move up.
Right now yields have moved up and bitcoin is still ranging…. the dollar hasn’t moved down — at least yet.
Curious to hear your take on the correlation between rising yields, dropping dollar and its impact on bitcoins price and whether its perhaps not just yields fuelling the big moves and bitcoin but the relationship between the dollar and yields.
Cheers.
Why not include 2018 on your chart with Yields and BTC price? If you did, you’d see that from Jan 2018 – Nov 2018 10 Yr yields rose from 2.41% to 3.24 % – a 34% increase. During that same period Bitcoin fell from $17,176 to $5,600- a decline of 67%. Keep in mind the 4 year halving cycle and how best years are 2013, 2017 and late 2020-early 2021. This history would suggest that the best growth for this cycle is behind us. Now add in a lack of new buyers, less free money, tightening on the horizon, rising inflation and risk deleveraging (already occurring in the market) and the outlook for Bitcoin is not as attractive.
That’s a fair question
Great question! We covered this in one of our previous Crypto articles. The other major influence on Bitcoin’s price movements is the spread between long term and short term holders. The yield vs bitcoin correlation typically breaks when the spread is at extremes (ie: when the market has been too hot like towards the end of 2017 or too weak like in 2019):
https://www.gameoftrades.net/btc-weekly-overview-price-action-on-chain-cross-asset-6/
I do think that the best growth of the cycle is behind us as you say. We won’t be seeing the type of 10x returns that we saw in 2020-2021, more likely 2-3X before the end of the run. History suggests that the beginning of the tightening cycle only tends to trigger temporary risk-off market moves (like we are currently seeing on equities) but do not derail the broader trend of reflation until later in the cycle.
After the first 2-3 rate hikes, the risk-reward on risk assets will be much less favourable (in fact, quite dangerous).
Of course, this is our personal take on the market. There are plenty of narratives out there which call for Bitcoin’s downfall in 2022.
Can we please get more frequent BTC updates as a lot of us entered between 53-56k and are HODLing very stressfully?
Hang in buddy. Bull run returning in a few weeks hopefully. You can reduce your exposure then. Start small. Build conviction and understand what a great asset it is.
Bitcoin is a speculative asset. There is no product. The massive gains for early adopters is long gone. Hopefully your portfolio isn’t 100% bitcoin even the last few years have had massive swings.
10 Yr has peaked yesterday. It doesnt make sense to me to believe 10 Yr will continue upwards. Time to rotate out of risky assets
Hi Peter, I have a question about Microvision regarding their 100k+ bitcoins holdings. With a short float around 19%, I’m curious if a Bitcoin run would have an impact on the stock price of companies that hold large sums of Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Thanks friend!
Would really like more frequent updates for Bitcoin as the moves over the last few days have been very counter to the narrative of the stories. Is our bull thesis still intact?
Have u also run data on the correlation between BTC and NASDAQ/S&P 500, which look pretty positively correlated in the last few week that cause the downturn of BTC. In the case of tightening with higher yield, BTC might crash, which would be opposite to our expectation now for higher yield with a higher BTC price.
Hope everyone is still HODLing strong😋
Peter
I do see how you correlate BTC to the 10yr yields, but it seems like like right BTC is aligning with the indices. With that in mind, do you think that the FED stating that they are going to start reducing their balance sheet will have a huge impact on crypto prices? It seems a little crazy that with the amount of money they have in the system right now, that it will crash the market when they start pulling out.