I know we are looking at 6-12 months, but this seems to indicate a downturn is possible, maybe even in Q2. No way to know for sure, but do you have any indications/data on timing with a little more specificity?
Guys I think you’re missing it and I need your help. I think we can see one of the largest swings in unemployment in American history without hardly anyone who’s currently employed losing their job. Look at immigration across the southern border and the executive order Biden just signed regarding immigration. If these people end up being counted as “unemployed”, (theoretically) what happens next?
Great concise presentation of what many top Macro analysts predicted 12 months ago.
Markets peaked in Nov. of 21 and tightening of dollar supply would implode all bubbles and poorly managed companies. Bear market bounces happened after Nov. 21 for sure. By Bye Bye Bed Bath and Beyond. Retail drives the economiy and is in bad bad shape.
Increase in unemployment will be considered deflationary and hence positive for the mkt, plus earnings beat of the heavily weighted stocks will further propel the mkt till overall earnings deteriorate broadly but by then inflation will be much lower for the fed to start cutting rates. It all depends on the shock value of the news and how it is digested. So the much anticipated crash may not come. yet I am sticking with your analysis. Hope I am wrong
I know we are looking at 6-12 months, but this seems to indicate a downturn is possible, maybe even in Q2. No way to know for sure, but do you have any indications/data on timing with a little more specificity?
Great video. The increase in your number of subscribers beats the SP500! 👍
Guys I think you’re missing it and I need your help. I think we can see one of the largest swings in unemployment in American history without hardly anyone who’s currently employed losing their job. Look at immigration across the southern border and the executive order Biden just signed regarding immigration. If these people end up being counted as “unemployed”, (theoretically) what happens next?
Great concise presentation of what many top Macro analysts predicted 12 months ago.
Markets peaked in Nov. of 21 and tightening of dollar supply would implode all bubbles and poorly managed companies. Bear market bounces happened after Nov. 21 for sure. By Bye Bye Bed Bath and Beyond. Retail drives the economiy and is in bad bad shape.
Increase in unemployment will be considered deflationary and hence positive for the mkt, plus earnings beat of the heavily weighted stocks will further propel the mkt till overall earnings deteriorate broadly but by then inflation will be much lower for the fed to start cutting rates. It all depends on the shock value of the news and how it is digested. So the much anticipated crash may not come. yet I am sticking with your analysis. Hope I am wrong