What Does a Bearish Long-term Momentum Crossover Mean for the SP500?

Here is an early post of today’s Youtube video:

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  1. (20) 20
    VMA_GOT says:

    Hello Peter. Thank you for an update, but a video has a problem. In a section of Investor’s sentiment it just finished while you were still talking.

    1. (1) 1
      Gold Finger says:

      Yeah should probably be fixed before public release 😉

      1. (4) 4
        Mikado says:

        …Public/YouTube hast same end

        1. (1) 1
          Zen Meister says:

          “Selling now because of tightening is like …”

          A test to see if we were still awake. “because of the fear many already sold” he mentions, so I guess it should be smth like

          “… is like throwing away a good opportunity” 😉

    2. (1) 1
      Guido Reuter says:

      Hi team,
      Anything special going on? It has been quiet for few days.


  2. (1) 1
    Laurent Huck says:

    Yes, still experiencing the problem (the video cuts after 8mn but Peter was still speaking)

  3. (7) 7
    StevenTechlin says:

    Oh man, ended right before the climax.

    1. (7) 7
      Rory Wallace says:

      You can get a tablet for that 😉

      1. (0) 0
        StevenTechlin says:


  4. (0) 0
    hammerthrow says:

    The video got cut halfway it seems. You were still saying something, and it just ended abruptly.

  5. (0) 0
    AR says:

    Same issue with others i.e. video is cutting short

  6. (2) 2
    TimR says:

    Ha! love the ending really drives the point home

  7. (1) 1
    Mark Turon says:

    Video still incomplete. Great content so far!

  8. (0) 0
    HL says:

    superb example, “selling now is like” *ends a video in a middle, perfect example XD

  9. (0) 0
    Hutch0321 says:

    Is there a correlation between the depth of recessions and the decline in the S and P 500?

  10. (0) 0
    Barham Othman says:

    Oh, I was deep thinking of what you were talking about at the end then the video finished right when I was not ready for it

  11. (0) 0
    Kambiz pouyamajd says:

    There is a problem with video at the end

  12. (2) 2
    mattcgaff says:

    Hey GOT community. I am hoping to get your feedback and comments on my concerns. I have remained bullish and invested in the markets and believe that Peter / GOT has a solid thesis regarding a late cycle bull run. However, when I read about what many would consider ‘conspiracy theories’ – I have serious doubts, stress, anxiety and questions about the world economy and the potentially corrupt powers at be. I have watched many videos and read newsletters that are sick and alarming and I hope that I am reacting to ‘nonsense’ …so here are my concerns: 1) WIth social security and pension funds supposedly going bust later in the decade, some posture that events such as Covid and Wars are deliberate – to reset the inevitability of a financial system that has run its course / going bust. The lockdowns, mandates and supply chain issues are considered by some to be a fire drill of sorts and a conditioning for humanity. 2) What if Powell and co deliberately and justifiably (conveniently) raise rates to crush the economy (with an ulterior motive). The motive – to bring (or continue to bring) the population to its knees. More supply chain issues, mandates, rising costs, scarcity of resources – that will help the government increase power and control. My own rebuttal to this is that Biden administration / dems will not get voted back in and I hope this is the scenario – that our democracy will check and balance itself and things do not get out of hand as things are in China right now- where human liberties are freedoms are hard to come by. My concern with US democracy is that it seems Globalisation may over shadow the independence of the US and our gov is not operating on behalf of US citizens. When I look at my portfolio – if the GOT late cycle rally does NOT come to pass, I will get crushed. I am fairly well diversified with heavy allocation to the crypto ecosystem and innovation stocks. Many think cypto will be a safe haven during covid / war / chaos, but I suspect it will get crushed if this administration does not change its stance / position – and I think there is good reason that they will not. Is it just me or is this Biden administration a complete disaster that is decimating our economy, markets and spirits. Aside: “I can just hear Peter thinking this bearish and fearful sentiment is good reason for a rally” and I hope that is the case. I just dont see the current state of world affairs ‘letting up’. They will leverage the covid sham possibly forever and if its not that, Im sure they will manufacture something else. From an investment POV, I am thinking Gold, Farmland, precious metals….and getting out or my longs and start shorting. At this time, my state of mind is in bad shape and my only inspiration is to try to stay ahead of it all – profit from the corruption, live off the grid, etc. I know we have mid terms coming up and many think Biden, Powell and company need to do some things to get popularity back up….I am getting more and more skeptical of this happening and I hope I am wrong. The only think I can think of – that the current administration has done to help US citizens were the stimulus checks and covid unemployment – but that can be looked at as a sham and planned. It seems to me the administration has every reason to perpetuate their policies – all be them bad for US citizens – because of the Covid and war – which look suspiciously deliberate. But you will never see that information on the mainstream media. I suspect my mental pendulum has swung too far and I hope it has. Maybe you all have some good points to swing it back. Thanks in advance. As for now, I remain long with hopes of a more dovish fed but I become more and more skeptical of this as time passes and it seems more likely that the narrative and policies will continue as they have since covid and this admin took office.

    1. (8) 8
      Matt Krannig says:

      I would say that some of what you say is probably fairly valid, and I would also say that much of it is way out of your control and spending anytime worrying about it is probably a complete and total waste of your time. I used to share some of these concerns, and then I left the US and moved to South America and pretty much stopped watching anything calling itself “news”. I had pretty much even forgotten Biden was still president until you mentioned it. I really only think of politics these days from a strictly “How does this affect my portfolio” stance, and even then i use sentiment and technicals far more., politics makes up about 5% of my investment/trading decision making process, at most. Now I read, meditate and try to live in the moment as much as I can. I also do not use/consume any form of social media in any way. I can not tell you how much happier and more fulfilling these changes have made me and my life. All the best to ya brother.

    2. (6) 6
      Brad Hill says:

      I think your letting the conspiracy theory voice get too much of your attention. Speaking from experience working at a fortune 20 company in their executive levels, people give leaders way to much evil genius credit when 99% of the time it’s just normal people with huge egos trying to maintain their position and ego. Bureaucracy is too slow and dumb to accomplish what you mentioned, and at least in the US no one has enough power to circumvent bureaucracy to accomplish their goals (as hard a Trump or Biden may try) Russia on the other hand….

      That said Peter doesn’t have a crystal ball, and planning on and end of the cycle rally is a gamble. I’m in the camp that thinks it’s more likely than not, but that still a significant risk. We may not get back to ATH for years if Powell thinks he’s volkner board again. I wouldn’t go chasing returns in commodities now, that ship has said for ultra high returns. Gold could be okay if you hold on, and bitcoin specifically would be okay if you hold on long term. If your already bought into the end of cycle rally theory, I say hold on to see how it plays out. Right now isn’t the time to sell.

      I’ve got almost 500k riding on an end of cycle bull run so at least your in good company. It’s still a risky bet in my opinion though.

      By the way, if you’re interested in some non partisan news to keep you level headed, read Tangle.com it’s free and completely independent and give a great mix of right and left views without the bias.

      Be careful of the conspiracy angles, they scream loud and focus on fear to motivate. They a ay they’re focused on facts but always leave out the full picture.

    3. (3) 3
      Tom-Elias Knosp says:

      I can basically subscribe to what the other comments say, especially Brad`s. I got something to add though:
      Really make sure, that you think for yourself, dont just take a position because of anyone elses views, because even if Peter is right for example, you might loose conviction and sell right at the worst possible moment, because you didnt fully comprehend and believe in his thesis. Take this as a lesson, it will be worth much more than the money if you learn how to manage yourself properly, I´ve been there only a few months ago, I lost a third of my entire networth on Peter´s call about a BTC Year End Rallye, even though I wasnt very convinced of it myself… this really made me overthink my Risk Management and Investing/Gambling strategy. Take Peters or anyones hypothesis as a perspective, somthing to make you aware of potential opportunities, watch them carefully and enter if you think you have a good risk/reward, but make sure you know when to get out so you wont loose too much money on anyones wrong calls.
      To save Peter´s honor, I also trippled my money last year before loosing a third, by buying the virtual bottom in BTC last year in June and July. Now I took responsibility, and stopped blindly buying/selling due to the opinions of others.
      Looking at the conspiracy theory part… same thing, its a perspective, make sure you live your life on your terms, nothing wrong with contrarian views to anticipate things that could affect your life, do what you can to be prepared, but accept that you cant be prepared for everything.

    4. (0) 0
      Loss Cat says:

      I do think that the fed specifically wants to flatten the markets. They believe that stonks and the expansion of digital assets cause real world inflation.

  13. (2) 2
    Cristal says:

    Peter, if u are right on the markets then i must say that u are THE man! Well i don’t know if i am spraking to u or a team ofcourse. I have stated before that i have no formal economic education, i think i understand what u are saying, it is not possible to reason myself at this point.. My portfolio is set up to how i interpret all your content. This channel is the only channel that i listen to or follow. That gives some peace of mind. Keep it up…

  14. (3) 3
    Farah Sarkis says:

    Peter are you ok? This abrupt ending got us all worried about you! 😳

    1. (1) 1
      Brad Hill says:

      I think the Fed found out he’s calling their bluff, so they bribed the CIA to take him out mid video 😉

    2. (0) 0
      YL says:

      I also opened a ticket since yesterday, still no reply!

  15. (0) 0
    rocks2stocks says:

    What does Warren Buffett like more than anything? A huge market selloff and distressed assets so he can scoop up bargains. There might be another such opportunity in the next year or two. I want to be ready if it happens and not stressed out. Peter is the best guide to markets I’ve ever found in any format. Feeling lucky.

  16. (7) 7
    Frank Lakinski says:

    Should we file a missing persons report?

    1. (0) 0
      Farah Sarkis says:

      Exactly my thoughts!

  17. (0) 0
    StevenTechlin says:

    I’ve never been ghosted so hard before.

  18. (3) 3
    sentiment_trader says:

    Let’s hope that Peter is ok and nothing bad happened to him! He’s usually very good about letting us know if he’s going on vacation or something.

  19. (0) 0
    Mikado says:

    … Twitter is also outdated ?:-(

  20. (0) 0
    Sam Foster says:

    You have not replied to my email of last week – You have charged me twice for one month – #300157 and #292829.

    Why have you not replied or done anything to sort this out? If I don’t hear from you today I will be asking my card provider for a chargeback.

    1. (0) 0
      GOT says:

      customer service is on your case, I apologize for the delay in response