Great content, thanks. An Observation: Perhaps we are seeing job openings being cut but not a corresponding response to the unemployment rate because the largest generation in our country’s history, the baby boomers, are exiting the workforce/retiring. I am concerned the continuation of this macro trend will keep employment overly tight, continue to drive pressure on wages making inflation particular difficult to combat. Any thoughts or macro work and labor force participation influencing unemployment forecasts ?
Great observation and question. I am interested in a similar thesis involving the baby boomers which considers the impact of consumer spending on markets. When we are young and leaving home, we look for a place to live (boomers drove rental yields), we then (generalisation) form relationships, move in with partners start families and pay off mortgages (boomers drove property prices) – all reducing disposable income. Then as we near retirement, children are not as expensive, homes are paid off and there is an increase in savings / discretionary spending. What is the expected impact of this wave of spending coming out of the economy and will the japanses markets be a guide (given their baby boom was pre war, not post war).
Demographic evolution should be considered. We have had never a japonized (with lots of old people and few young) society in previous recessions and bear markets. Here is a good book regarding this matter: https://images.app.goo.gl/esZTCr4ywssuhQ5u6
Great content, thanks. An Observation: Perhaps we are seeing job openings being cut but not a corresponding response to the unemployment rate because the largest generation in our country’s history, the baby boomers, are exiting the workforce/retiring. I am concerned the continuation of this macro trend will keep employment overly tight, continue to drive pressure on wages making inflation particular difficult to combat. Any thoughts or macro work and labor force participation influencing unemployment forecasts ?
Great observation and question. I am interested in a similar thesis involving the baby boomers which considers the impact of consumer spending on markets. When we are young and leaving home, we look for a place to live (boomers drove rental yields), we then (generalisation) form relationships, move in with partners start families and pay off mortgages (boomers drove property prices) – all reducing disposable income. Then as we near retirement, children are not as expensive, homes are paid off and there is an increase in savings / discretionary spending. What is the expected impact of this wave of spending coming out of the economy and will the japanses markets be a guide (given their baby boom was pre war, not post war).
This is a huge call. Based on the advice…to over simplify, this calls for a complete move out of stocks for 6 months.
The market is at 4132 (S&P).
Let’s see what the value is on October 9.
We are seeing tremendous bearish sentiment, which is a contrary indication. The author does mention this in his videos.
Peter, is there a valid trend line through the wick in August, candle and two wicks in February, and candle in April highs?
Demographic evolution should be considered. We have had never a japonized (with lots of old people and few young) society in previous recessions and bear markets. Here is a good book regarding this matter: https://images.app.goo.gl/esZTCr4ywssuhQ5u6
if us markets will not go down then i will cancel my membership