I am using some technical indicators with long very calculation periods
several of them are close to breaking downward trend including the “BBW 51 close 2” getting close to breaking a trend that has been in operation since Jan 21 before the first big top
Shorting BTC seems a gamble and not a trade as long term trends are going to shift in the next month or so and
it could be up for a really big run up
I am expecting one more shake out to the wedge support at maybe 36 before the big up and up… but I wouldn’t bet on it
Too many macro factors that could take place and overwhelm the technical picture in my view
we’ll see
good luck trading
As we’ve discussed in our previous articles, although we could definitely see short-term volatility, there are many reasons for Bitcoin to go up in the coming months. Betting on short-term moves is usually highly speculative and requires lots of experience in risk management.
I agree 100% about the FEDs’ inflation expectations. However, I expect much higher numbers as I have said before (12% by end of 2022). The fed previously said they were shooting for a 2% inflation goal. How did it get so out of control (over 7% so far)? Because of FED policy and they knew it would happen as a result! Like most elites they say one thing and do another. The inflation we are seeing is at least 70% due to government spending and FED policy to support that spending IMO. Some have argued with me that oil prices and supply chain disruption are the culprits. I agree they have some role in inflation but it is minimal compared to the FEDs’ current policy. More dollars in the system dilutes the spending power of the dollar. I hope I am wrong about future inflation. Either way I predict hyper-inflation or stagflation. This administration has shown no interest in addressing the issues that we currently face.
And IMO the FED didn’t miss their chance to tighten…..it was their plan all along. They are not STUPID! They know exactly what they are doing! That is why the FED presidents always appear on media and spout extreme comments contradicting each other. They know they can control the market and everyone that is aware knows that the suppossed “free market” has been hijacked ever since Covid. Once again….IMO!
Love your analysis. How do you explain the market sentiment at the lowest when BRK is trading at ATH?
I like your macro analysis in general but feels that we would beneficiate from some stock analysis to position our portfolio.
The cause of our inflation is the combination of monetary and fiscal policy responses to the Covid pandemic. In the spring of 2020 we were at a peak and starting to role over into a major correction with a recession to follow. The yield curve had inverted in 8/19 signaling a recession in the near term. With that backdrop the government was forced to either let the economy crash in a free fall caused by the lockdown or provide support. Congress provided support that kept a lot of businesses in our community from going bankrupt. The fed did their part by providing liquidity and keeping rates low. Taxes were not raised to pay for the fiscal support because it would have been counter productive. As a result we increased the deficit rather dramatically, nearly doubling the deficits created by the tax cuts passed just before Covid. Suddenly, we had the largest explosion of the deficit in our history. Macro economics is sometimes pretty simple. Increasing deficits increases demand. It’s like pouring gasoline on the economy. Inflation was the known side effect of saving the economy from the Covid lockdown. If we were to fight it most effectively we would raise taxes to reduce the deficits and raise interest rates to tamp down demand. Since increasing taxes isn’t likely, it puts the onus on the fed to correct the economy’s course. Their challenge is to fix the problem with as little damage as possible. It’s a tricky job. It will take a combination of science, art and experience. It will surely result in a recession, probably in late 2022 or 2023 as the yield curve has not yet gone negative and it normally leads by at least a year. I hope it can be a short recession with a V bottom. As you know, major market corrections (Bear Market sized corrections) normally lead or anticipate recessions. Correcting the inflation (ie, Covid) problem will cause pain for those who don’t position themselves properly but it will also create a monster buying opportunity.
Considering the asset has been in a very narrow consolidation range throughout the past few weeks (with very few on-chain developments), we’ve been waiting for Bitcoin to make a significant development on its price chart before making another update. We saw a breakout above a key level this weekend, the crypto article should be posted by the end of the day or early tomorrow.
@GOT Hi Peter, US500 broke the 4550 resistance yesterday and is now above the 50, 100, 150 and 200 MA.
What is your latest update on this development or do you still think there will be a correction (false breakout) in the days and weeks ahead?
Hi Peter. Following on from the post of SURAJ783. The Bulls are running strong as you envisaged. How many up days can we have though before we blow off some steam. The S&P 500 hesitated briefly at 4520 and is about to test the resistance at 4590. Is it time to short yet? No indication of a turn around yet that I can see.
Should we try shorting BTC at 46k major resistance and try to buy back in?
I am using some technical indicators with long very calculation periods
several of them are close to breaking downward trend including the “BBW 51 close 2” getting close to breaking a trend that has been in operation since Jan 21 before the first big top
Shorting BTC seems a gamble and not a trade as long term trends are going to shift in the next month or so and
it could be up for a really big run up
I am expecting one more shake out to the wedge support at maybe 36 before the big up and up… but I wouldn’t bet on it
Too many macro factors that could take place and overwhelm the technical picture in my view
we’ll see
good luck trading
As we’ve discussed in our previous articles, although we could definitely see short-term volatility, there are many reasons for Bitcoin to go up in the coming months. Betting on short-term moves is usually highly speculative and requires lots of experience in risk management.
Great job. Love your analysis of volume readings here.
I agree 100% about the FEDs’ inflation expectations. However, I expect much higher numbers as I have said before (12% by end of 2022). The fed previously said they were shooting for a 2% inflation goal. How did it get so out of control (over 7% so far)? Because of FED policy and they knew it would happen as a result! Like most elites they say one thing and do another. The inflation we are seeing is at least 70% due to government spending and FED policy to support that spending IMO. Some have argued with me that oil prices and supply chain disruption are the culprits. I agree they have some role in inflation but it is minimal compared to the FEDs’ current policy. More dollars in the system dilutes the spending power of the dollar. I hope I am wrong about future inflation. Either way I predict hyper-inflation or stagflation. This administration has shown no interest in addressing the issues that we currently face.
And IMO the FED didn’t miss their chance to tighten…..it was their plan all along. They are not STUPID! They know exactly what they are doing! That is why the FED presidents always appear on media and spout extreme comments contradicting each other. They know they can control the market and everyone that is aware knows that the suppossed “free market” has been hijacked ever since Covid. Once again….IMO!
Is RWM forming a bullish descending wedge?
Tom Lee has been the lone bull out there in mainstream media. He has been talking about a monstrous comeback on S&P
I remember seeing Tom Lee call the bottom at 4600 points in early January. I think being bullish is just his marketing strategy.
Love your analysis. How do you explain the market sentiment at the lowest when BRK is trading at ATH?
I like your macro analysis in general but feels that we would beneficiate from some stock analysis to position our portfolio.
The cause of our inflation is the combination of monetary and fiscal policy responses to the Covid pandemic. In the spring of 2020 we were at a peak and starting to role over into a major correction with a recession to follow. The yield curve had inverted in 8/19 signaling a recession in the near term. With that backdrop the government was forced to either let the economy crash in a free fall caused by the lockdown or provide support. Congress provided support that kept a lot of businesses in our community from going bankrupt. The fed did their part by providing liquidity and keeping rates low. Taxes were not raised to pay for the fiscal support because it would have been counter productive. As a result we increased the deficit rather dramatically, nearly doubling the deficits created by the tax cuts passed just before Covid. Suddenly, we had the largest explosion of the deficit in our history. Macro economics is sometimes pretty simple. Increasing deficits increases demand. It’s like pouring gasoline on the economy. Inflation was the known side effect of saving the economy from the Covid lockdown. If we were to fight it most effectively we would raise taxes to reduce the deficits and raise interest rates to tamp down demand. Since increasing taxes isn’t likely, it puts the onus on the fed to correct the economy’s course. Their challenge is to fix the problem with as little damage as possible. It’s a tricky job. It will take a combination of science, art and experience. It will surely result in a recession, probably in late 2022 or 2023 as the yield curve has not yet gone negative and it normally leads by at least a year. I hope it can be a short recession with a V bottom. As you know, major market corrections (Bear Market sized corrections) normally lead or anticipate recessions. Correcting the inflation (ie, Covid) problem will cause pain for those who don’t position themselves properly but it will also create a monster buying opportunity.
Looking forward to the BTC/crypto update!
Timely BTC update is pending.. I paid for both stocks and BTC analysis.. Latter analysis is missing off late
Considering the asset has been in a very narrow consolidation range throughout the past few weeks (with very few on-chain developments), we’ve been waiting for Bitcoin to make a significant development on its price chart before making another update. We saw a breakout above a key level this weekend, the crypto article should be posted by the end of the day or early tomorrow.
@GOT Hi Peter, US500 broke the 4550 resistance yesterday and is now above the 50, 100, 150 and 200 MA.
What is your latest update on this development or do you still think there will be a correction (false breakout) in the days and weeks ahead?
Really appreciate your input here. Thanks!
Hi Peter. Following on from the post of SURAJ783. The Bulls are running strong as you envisaged. How many up days can we have though before we blow off some steam. The S&P 500 hesitated briefly at 4520 and is about to test the resistance at 4590. Is it time to short yet? No indication of a turn around yet that I can see.