I am with you on the thesis that the Fed will not increase the rates as many times because of the slowing economy, and I also see risk on Markers in the short to mid term. Where I differ from your opinion is the that the slowing economy and inflation will put pressure on earnings growth and valuations in the Mid to long term.
Are the 600bln$ reserves from Russia one of the reasons the dollar is still strong? Because the demand from Russia was high. Or is 600bln not that much in that market. What do u think the dollar will do in the next few months?
In my opinion the FED will crash the market, just not now. With this new so called crisis with Russia and Ukraine the US Government, and governments around the world, are already increasing spending for new arms deals and printing new money. Please, no one get me wrong, I am not making light of the situation in Ukraine. I feel deeply for those people unlike the ruling class that will benefit from it. I believe the FED will try to appear to fight inflation in the coming months even though their balance sheet will continue to grow and inflation will persist. The current situation in the bond market tells me there is little risk of a market crash. When the FED truly stops their asset purchases and yields spike, I believe that will signal the crash. No telling when that will be though.
Just want to say thanks for you thorough and objective analyses of the markets. An important lesson I keep learning is this. Stay focused on what the market setup is now and stop projecting what I anticipate happening in the unknown future. Why? Because trading opportunities always happen now–often in lightening flashes–and my projections about the future will prevent my capitalizing on them. So I trust you are always describing the setup now and are fully prepared to adjust your views when the setup reverses.
The Dollar is holding up well in light of the sanctions could this lead to a short term sell off?
I am with you on the thesis that the Fed will not increase the rates as many times because of the slowing economy, and I also see risk on Markers in the short to mid term. Where I differ from your opinion is the that the slowing economy and inflation will put pressure on earnings growth and valuations in the Mid to long term.
Are the 600bln$ reserves from Russia one of the reasons the dollar is still strong? Because the demand from Russia was high. Or is 600bln not that much in that market. What do u think the dollar will do in the next few months?
In my opinion the FED will crash the market, just not now. With this new so called crisis with Russia and Ukraine the US Government, and governments around the world, are already increasing spending for new arms deals and printing new money. Please, no one get me wrong, I am not making light of the situation in Ukraine. I feel deeply for those people unlike the ruling class that will benefit from it. I believe the FED will try to appear to fight inflation in the coming months even though their balance sheet will continue to grow and inflation will persist. The current situation in the bond market tells me there is little risk of a market crash. When the FED truly stops their asset purchases and yields spike, I believe that will signal the crash. No telling when that will be though.
Just want to say thanks for you thorough and objective analyses of the markets. An important lesson I keep learning is this. Stay focused on what the market setup is now and stop projecting what I anticipate happening in the unknown future. Why? Because trading opportunities always happen now–often in lightening flashes–and my projections about the future will prevent my capitalizing on them. So I trust you are always describing the setup now and are fully prepared to adjust your views when the setup reverses.