Tune in for the next research articles that will be published over the next 7 days:
- Overview of Bitcoin: When Can We Expect the Monstrous Returns Again?
- Game of Trades Ratings: Summary of all work/convictions highlighted over the last month (along with Buy/Sell ratings)
- Crude Oil Update: What does the Risk/Reward Look Like After the 30% drop?
See our most recent work on the SP500:
Stocks Are Expensive: An Unfavorable Starting Point
30% Rally Is The “Typical Bull Run” | SP500 Front Running Easier Financial Conditions
The SP500 Just Cleared Some Major Levels. | Head Fake Or Brand New Bull Run?
Here is today’s Youtube video.
Do you have a breakdown of which sections rotate at different stages in the rally like (tech) at the beginning. Are there different sectors that rotate taking the lead driving the rally higher?
@Hutch0321 Thank you for the question. We can take a look at that in future research, but we’d expect that the rotation depends on the nature of the concerns that are being overcome. Tech and consumer discretionary, for example, are rate-sensitive plays and therefore we would expect them to win in an environment where rates are coming down. The work we did around rotations following market bottoms confirmed those sectors stood a good chance and that’s what’s been playing out so far in the rebound of late.
Hi @GOT
What is the plan in 6-12 months when sp500 gets to 5300? Is it still rotate from stocks to commodities and bitcoin to gold? Is it evolving?
Thanks!
@Maxrothira Thank you for the question. We’d say it’s an evolving process, with the macro picture looking very uncertain. Consistent with our work on valuations of late, if the S&P 500 were to get 5300 then those valuations would look even more disadvantageous. We’d have to reassess the macroeconomic environment at that point to look for the best risk-reward opportunities.
The ratings dashboard hasn’t been updated in nearly two months.
We’ll be posting an update to our ratings early next week. I’ll summarize our six-to-12 month views on various asset classes, as well as the longer-term time frame. We’re also working on updating our website to revamp how we assess attractiveness across asset classes through the launch of our model portfolio. Please stay tuned for that.
You’ve gotta wonder with the jobs number and the dollar spiking will we see a capitulation move soon.
I have been pointing out the big divergence between bond yields and Fed speak. If you listen to the bond market, the FED is going to pivot early next year, and yields were going down. The FED has been consistently saying they have more work to do, and that the market is premature to reduce bond yields and assume an upcoming FED pivot. Then we had a very strong job reports, and the FED pivot talk seems to have dissipated, and bond yields have begun to rise which at least for now ends the story that yields are peaking.
I have been wondering why US 2 year yields were spiking up the last few days and soon approaching June highs. Thank you for your sharing.
GOT any thoughts on the market, especially the SP500, stalling out at its’ previous highs? VIX at support?
Interesting video. GOT used to give buy levels and take profit levels. I don’t see that anymore and I am interested as to why. I understand GOT’s thesis is long term but if someone is not prepared to take a 10%+ hit IF the SP500 retest its’ lows do you have any advice? Other than wait on the sidelines. The stakes are high given current economic conditions.
Please post youtube videos here. You are missing a lot.