There should have been no surprise to anyone paying attention that the 2 year would NOT roll over unless inflation came down significantly. The two year anticipates FED policy based on FED communication and data. It\’s a misunderstanding of technical analysis to ignore fundamentals. As we know, the FED acts over months and sometimes years, where the two year responds almost immediately to where it thinks the FED will be 6-9 months in advance. The FED is as far behind the curve as I\’ve ever seen right now. Weeks ago I made a guess on this site that the 2 year would end the year at 2.75-3%. And that assumed that inflation would start to come down . Which so far it hasn\’t. That was based on the FED communicating clearly they intended to be at around 2.5% by year end and could go higher in 2023 if inflation persisted. The problem with the technical analysis is for the most part it\’s been dead wrong to this point. I can\’t think of a trade suggested on this site based on technicals that has been correct, with the possible exception of gold. But certainly the S&P 500, the TLT, bonds in general, Crypto etc have been wrong on the technical and anyone investing based on the advice here has big losses. There has to be some fundamentals included in the analysis, as most of the technicals have broken down. Specifically on the two year, all you have to do is understand that the 2 year anticipates the FED — the FED does NOT follow the 2 year imo it dictates it even thought the 2 year moves in advance of the FED which is why people mistakenly think of it as the FED following the 2 year which is not correct the FED just acts slower — listen to the FED that has gone to great lengths to communicate what they intend to do, and follow the data that might make them go bigger or smaller.
I wouldn’t describe the sell off as a panic either. It’s been pretty controlled. Sure it was a large sell off based on a bad CPI number. But unfortunately for those of us looking for a bottom, this didn’t have the fear necessary for capitulation. It was more of a controlled negative reaction to a negative number.
I look forward to the investment guide. I think that would be very valuable to all of us to see what you recommend for a portfolio. Because right now nothing is working, not stocks (outside of energy oil) and commodities, not bonds, not crypto and gold has been underwhelming given inflation.
Your right it was not panic selling. That is by design of course. Have you noticed throughout 2022, especially over the last 2 months, that every 2-3 day rally was meet with more selling. That is the big boys getting out. I am not expecting economic data to turn around until September at least. And the next Fed rate decision will bring the next firework show I think.
Today has a different feel. It feels more like panic. It depends if stocks end up closing lower or higher. If they come back by day end, that’s actually bad imo for those of us looking for at least a short term bottom. It’s better if they close down because that would be more like capitulation.
The problem is that all the markets are manipulated. I can put this in a few words. SEC vs Ripple.
Gensler is bought and paid for as are both sides of the aisle owned by Wall Street. I do not know how you can form any investment strategy knowing this happens. And I have been around here long enough to know.
We appreciate receiving critical feedback on the research and presentation of the pieces (and any other aspect of the service), we take feedback and criticism very seriously and actively use them to improve the experience of our members. That said, comments that do not fall in line with the community guidelines are unapproved until they can be verified by a moderator, this includes comments that are not respectful or polite towards the individual who spent time and effort to compose the research. Thank you!
comment that has been deleted : \”The day I met GOT was the biggest mistake of my life, of course I was making the financial decisions my myself and loss of capital is on my site, but ……………………………… It is a fact that their analyzes this year are catastrophic\” //please tell me what is in this comment, that it had to be removed //this is the fact of the GOT analysis and the conclusions drawn from them are catastrophic this year //it is a fact that the waste of money is only on my side //it is a fact that the deletion of comments is very poor on your part
There should have been no surprise to anyone paying attention that the 2 year would NOT roll over unless inflation came down significantly. The two year anticipates FED policy based on FED communication and data. It\’s a misunderstanding of technical analysis to ignore fundamentals. As we know, the FED acts over months and sometimes years, where the two year responds almost immediately to where it thinks the FED will be 6-9 months in advance. The FED is as far behind the curve as I\’ve ever seen right now. Weeks ago I made a guess on this site that the 2 year would end the year at 2.75-3%. And that assumed that inflation would start to come down . Which so far it hasn\’t. That was based on the FED communicating clearly they intended to be at around 2.5% by year end and could go higher in 2023 if inflation persisted. The problem with the technical analysis is for the most part it\’s been dead wrong to this point. I can\’t think of a trade suggested on this site based on technicals that has been correct, with the possible exception of gold. But certainly the S&P 500, the TLT, bonds in general, Crypto etc have been wrong on the technical and anyone investing based on the advice here has big losses. There has to be some fundamentals included in the analysis, as most of the technicals have broken down. Specifically on the two year, all you have to do is understand that the 2 year anticipates the FED — the FED does NOT follow the 2 year imo it dictates it even thought the 2 year moves in advance of the FED which is why people mistakenly think of it as the FED following the 2 year which is not correct the FED just acts slower — listen to the FED that has gone to great lengths to communicate what they intend to do, and follow the data that might make them go bigger or smaller.
I wouldn’t describe the sell off as a panic either. It’s been pretty controlled. Sure it was a large sell off based on a bad CPI number. But unfortunately for those of us looking for a bottom, this didn’t have the fear necessary for capitulation. It was more of a controlled negative reaction to a negative number.
I look forward to the investment guide. I think that would be very valuable to all of us to see what you recommend for a portfolio. Because right now nothing is working, not stocks (outside of energy oil) and commodities, not bonds, not crypto and gold has been underwhelming given inflation.
Your right it was not panic selling. That is by design of course. Have you noticed throughout 2022, especially over the last 2 months, that every 2-3 day rally was meet with more selling. That is the big boys getting out. I am not expecting economic data to turn around until September at least. And the next Fed rate decision will bring the next firework show I think.
Today has a different feel. It feels more like panic. It depends if stocks end up closing lower or higher. If they come back by day end, that’s actually bad imo for those of us looking for at least a short term bottom. It’s better if they close down because that would be more like capitulation.
The problem is that all the markets are manipulated. I can put this in a few words. SEC vs Ripple.
Gensler is bought and paid for as are both sides of the aisle owned by Wall Street. I do not know how you can form any investment strategy knowing this happens. And I have been around here long enough to know.
I WOULD LIKE TO NOTICE THAT GOT REMOVES INCOMPATIBLE COMMENTS ON THEM
We appreciate receiving critical feedback on the research and presentation of the pieces (and any other aspect of the service), we take feedback and criticism very seriously and actively use them to improve the experience of our members. That said, comments that do not fall in line with the community guidelines are unapproved until they can be verified by a moderator, this includes comments that are not respectful or polite towards the individual who spent time and effort to compose the research. Thank you!
comment that has been deleted : \”The day I met GOT was the biggest mistake of my life, of course I was making the financial decisions my myself and loss of capital is on my site, but ……………………………… It is a fact that their analyzes this year are catastrophic\” //please tell me what is in this comment, that it had to be removed //this is the fact of the GOT analysis and the conclusions drawn from them are catastrophic this year //it is a fact that the waste of money is only on my side //it is a fact that the deletion of comments is very poor on your part