I can’t figure out CYA’s option strategy.
I plan on using Peter and VIX/VIX3M to trade VIXM and VXX when the time comes. Maybe SPY puts too if we get a clear blow-off top with bearish divergences.
I really liked XVZ but it died. They used the VIX/VIX3M ratio, so I will do modified version manually.
I really haven’t found anything better than cash and vix products.
PHDG seems OK if you wait until it starts going up in a crash.
I would really like other opinions as well.
Steve VM stresses that his view is 2 years out but he does a great job of explaining how the FED is trapped. Its not a matter of if but when this plays out. I see West Virginia has moved to take restrictions off from Nuke plants. The tide could be turning on Uranium.
Self proclaimed Bond King. Very bullish on Bonds and anti Equities and Gold.
His fundamental analysis on the FED’s QE policy and its relationship to the economy (he thinks we are heading into a period of sustained deflation – therefore yields go down bonds go up) is quite interesting. I don’t know if he’s fully factored in supply constraint inflation in his hypothesis but the rest of it seems very sound and kind of lines up with GoT’s long term outlook on the economy.
Steve Van Metre he is well worth the time to watch on YouTube. recommend him highly. Between Steve VM and GOT you can really get a good grasp of what is going on with the Macro picture.
When do you expect the US02Y to top? Also, at what yield do you think it’ll top at? Based on a 30-yr trend line, it seems to be at around 2%. Thoughts?
at GOT. Do you have any statistics/charts indicating how much the reduced tapering have caused the rise, as its pretty unproceeded. Can the impact of the largest buyer in the market stopping buying make the tightening it selves? maybe the real normal treasury 2 years bond rate over the last 2 years is the 1.2 %, and the buy/sell situation caused it lower until the buying power dried in (FED purchased across the ratecurve, in both treasury and mortgage)
Any thought on tail hedging ETFs? CYA for example.
I can’t figure out CYA’s option strategy.
I plan on using Peter and VIX/VIX3M to trade VIXM and VXX when the time comes. Maybe SPY puts too if we get a clear blow-off top with bearish divergences.
I really liked XVZ but it died. They used the VIX/VIX3M ratio, so I will do modified version manually.
I really haven’t found anything better than cash and vix products.
PHDG seems OK if you wait until it starts going up in a crash.
I would really like other opinions as well.
Steve VM stresses that his view is 2 years out but he does a great job of explaining how the FED is trapped. Its not a matter of if but when this plays out. I see West Virginia has moved to take restrictions off from Nuke plants. The tide could be turning on Uranium.
Who is Steve VM?
Self proclaimed Bond King. Very bullish on Bonds and anti Equities and Gold.
His fundamental analysis on the FED’s QE policy and its relationship to the economy (he thinks we are heading into a period of sustained deflation – therefore yields go down bonds go up) is quite interesting. I don’t know if he’s fully factored in supply constraint inflation in his hypothesis but the rest of it seems very sound and kind of lines up with GoT’s long term outlook on the economy.
Steve Van Metre he is well worth the time to watch on YouTube. recommend him highly. Between Steve VM and GOT you can really get a good grasp of what is going on with the Macro picture.
Macro-analysis rules!
When do you expect the US02Y to top? Also, at what yield do you think it’ll top at? Based on a 30-yr trend line, it seems to be at around 2%. Thoughts?
I think Peter mentioned in the video he believes the 2 year will top around 2% as you pointed out also.
“The FED doesn’t own the whole bond market, at least not yet” LOL
at GOT. Do you have any statistics/charts indicating how much the reduced tapering have caused the rise, as its pretty unproceeded. Can the impact of the largest buyer in the market stopping buying make the tightening it selves? maybe the real normal treasury 2 years bond rate over the last 2 years is the 1.2 %, and the buy/sell situation caused it lower until the buying power dried in (FED purchased across the ratecurve, in both treasury and mortgage)
One of the best videos ever made on this website