Weekly Active Setups Report | Closing XLY

No new activations this week.

Key Highlights: Stocks are continuing to show weakness as rates edge near the highs and Q3 earnings season ramps up.

XLY hit target 3 which prompted us to close the trade, while SPY is continuing lower towards tgt 3.

Previous Activations

• Long UBER- The trade has hit the stop loss and been stopped out.
• Long RSPD- The trade has hit the stop loss and been stopped out.
• Long XLB- The trade has hit the stop loss and been stopped out.
• Short AMZN (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Short ADBE (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short ITB (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Long Corn Future (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short XLV (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)
• Short CRM (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Short SPY (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Short XLY – Target 3 was hit so we close the trade.

Closed Trades

XLY

 

Active Trades

Short AMZN (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade turned active on September 20 with a break below the trendline.

-Price was recently rejected at the 50-DMA and has continued lower to target 2.

-Amazon reports earnings today after the bell (10/26), which will be a significant factor in driving the price action.

Short ADBE (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The setup turned active on September 15 with a move below the trendline.

-On 10/12 price got close to hitting the stop loss but closed below it. That coincided with ADBE releasing new AI models, driving excitement around the stock.

-However, price has been unable to sustain those higher levels as it has broken back below the 50-DMA.

Short ITB (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade activated on September 13 with a move below the trendline.

-Price tested the 200-DMA where it fund near-term support after hitting target 1 but is now trading below it and has fell below target 2.

-Price has been negatively impacted by rising long-term rates, given the homebuilders’ sensitivity to them.

Long Corn Future (Tgt 1 hit)

-The trade activated on September 11 with a move above the downward trendline.

-Price rose above target 1 briefly but is now falling back towards the 50-DMA.

Short XLV (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade turned active with a break below the trendline on September 5.

-Price has fallen decisively through the trendline from June, and briefly hit target 2. There has been a clear breakdown in the previous bullish structure.

Short CRM (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade activated on August 2 with a break below the trendline starting in December of 2022.

-Price has reverted lower after testing the 50-DMA, now below the 200-DMA and approaching target 2.

Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since March.

-AAPL continues to be a barometer for risk for this market. It’s fallen through the 50-DMA again and is testing the 200-DMA. If it falls below there, target 3 will be in reach.

-AAPL reports earnings on 11/2.

Short SPY (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since May.

-SPY broke out of its channel and hit target 2, but rose back to test target 1.

-The trend channel has not held and price is cratering again as it approaches target 3.