Weekly Active Setups | Closing NFLX

No new activations this week.

Key Highlights: Rising long-term rates in recent trading sessions continue to drag stocks lower. Recent bullish activations have seen prices sharply reversed lower as a result of that.

We’re closing NFLX as it hit target 3 right before the earnings release of 10/18. Upcoming earnings releases will prove pivotal for price action.

Previous Activations

• Short NFLX (Close) – Closing the trade as the 3 targets were hit, with the third one doing so on 10/18/2023 before the earnings release.
• Long UBER
• Long RSPD
• Long XLB
• Short AMZN (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short ADBE (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short ITB (Tgt 1 hit)
• Long Corn Future (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short XLV (Tgt 1 Hit)
• Short CRM (Tgt 1 hit)
• Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Short SPY (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)
• Short XLY (Tgt 1 and 2 hit)

Our Closed Trades

NFLX

Long UBER

-The trade turned active on October 10, with a break above the trendline.

-Price quickly reversed lower after breaking above the trendline. Price is trading below the 50-DMA.

-Target 1 is in close proximity given the bullish divergence’s short duration.

Long RSPD

-The trade turned active on October 10, with a break above the trendline.

-Price got close to hitting target 1 after breaking above the trendline but quickly reversed lower instead.

-Rising long-term rates in recent trading sessions have slammed small-cap stocks.

Long XLB

-The trade turned active on October 10, with a break above the trendline.

-A pullback in the dollar pushed Material stocks higher, leading to the activation. However, as the dollar has rebounded, Material stocks have retraced to retest the trendline.

Short AMZN (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade turned active on September 20 with a break below the trendline.

-Price was recently rejected at the 50-DMA and is now slightly below target 1.

-Amazon reports earnings on 10/26, which will be a significant factor in driving the price action.

Short ADBE (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The setup turned active on September 15 with a move below the trendline.

-Price has surged in recent trading sessions and is now trading back above the trendline.

-One 10/12 price got close to hitting the stop loss but closed below it. That coincided with ADBE releasing new AI models, driving excitement around the stock.

Short ITB (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade activated on September 13 with a move below the trendline.

-Price tested the 200-DMA where it fund near-term support after hitting target 1 but is now trading below it and poised to hit target 2.

-Price has been negatively impacted by rising long-term rates, given the homebuilders’ sensitivity to them.

Long Corn Future (Tgt 1 hit)

-The trade activated on September 11 with a move above the downward trendline.

-Price hit target 1 but has been unable to break above it..

Short XLV (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade turned active with a break below the trendline on September 5.

-Price has fallen decisively through the trendline from June, and got close to hitting target 2. Price has reverted higher since then but was rejected after testing the 200-DMA.

-The 50-DMA and 200-DMA may act as resistance in coming trading sessions.

Short CRM (Tgt 1 Hit)

-The trade activated on August 2 with a break below the trendline starting in December of 2022.

-Price got close to testing target 2 but has reverted higher. The 200-DMA is acting as resistance.

Short AAPL (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since March.

-AAPL continues to be a barometer for risk for this market. It’s hovering near the 50-DMA.

-AAPL reports earnings on 11/2.

Short SPY (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-The trade was activated on August 2 with the break below the trendline that has held since May.

-SPY broke out of its channel and hit target 2, but has risen to test target 1. Price is breaking below the channel again after rejection at the 50-DMA, a bearish development.

Short XLY (Tgt 1 and 2 Hit)

-XLY broke below the trendline which activated the short trade on July 20.

-Price decisively fell below the 100-DMA and hit target 2. It’s since reversed higher to test target 1. It’s now consolidating between targets 1 and 2.

-Disappointing earnings results from TSLA on 10/18/2023 could push XLY to close in on target 3.