@GOT
Congratulations on nice analysis. Fed hasn’t started tightening. Omicron is behind us.
Inflation is rising…. However, where will the retail buyers put their money?
Gold and Crypto are the only choices…. Leaving as cash, is not a good option, unless the market is crashing.
Peter, another well thought out video. Thank you. I tend to agree with you that stock market growth is getting near it’s peak and that the Fed will likely be the cause of our next large correction or bear market. However, I was watching Tom Lee (of Fundstrat), who was a special guest on The Compound (YouTube). He doesn’t think the next bear market will come until around 2029. His optimism is based on the number of people in the 30-50 year old age group, our biggest spenders. Right now the Millenniels are in this age range.
He said this age group should peak around 2029. He showed a graph which shows the Baby Boomers peaked in this range right before the tech bubble pop around 2000 and bottomed out around 2009. According to him the economy tends to cycle up and down with this age group and is the primary basis for his economic outlook. Is this something you have considered?
I watched that too. Also interesting to considers ARK’s forecast of 40 CAGR over next 5 years. Cathie Wood thinks this is the decade where innovation transforms the world. Tom Lee and C Wood expecting a blowout decade.
Personally, I believe inflation rate will double in next 6-12 month. I own a business consulting firm in the US, which only focus on US China trades. This time of last year, most of our suppliers in China informed us that after 2021 Chinese New Year will see a 10-20% increase on critical parts such as energy, metal and battery. Not surprisingly, we just received the same notices a week ago, that same critical part will be seen other 10-30% increase after 2022 Chinese New Year.
I feel this time will be a lot worst:
1. there is a massive Covid outbreak going on right now in China, which will cause labor shortage and supply chain obstruction after Chinese New Year.
2. CCP’s 0 Covid policy, sounds stupid and expensive, but that is the reality under a dictatorship. This policy will cause extreme volatile economic downturn in China.
3. President Xi’s 3rd turn will be announce in March of 2022, if that is the case, be prepared – Hell is Coming!
GOT I also agree that the FED will go through with their rate hikes, although I think the will be fractional rises and nothing meaningful. Just for show. We can usually expect these announcements at the FOMC monthly meeting minutes but how do you think the market will react? Can we expect short term sell-offs in the market which we should be looking for buying opportunities?
@GOT
Congratulations on nice analysis. Fed hasn’t started tightening. Omicron is behind us.
Inflation is rising…. However, where will the retail buyers put their money?
Gold and Crypto are the only choices…. Leaving as cash, is not a good option, unless the market is crashing.
Peter, another well thought out video. Thank you. I tend to agree with you that stock market growth is getting near it’s peak and that the Fed will likely be the cause of our next large correction or bear market. However, I was watching Tom Lee (of Fundstrat), who was a special guest on The Compound (YouTube). He doesn’t think the next bear market will come until around 2029. His optimism is based on the number of people in the 30-50 year old age group, our biggest spenders. Right now the Millenniels are in this age range.
He said this age group should peak around 2029. He showed a graph which shows the Baby Boomers peaked in this range right before the tech bubble pop around 2000 and bottomed out around 2009. According to him the economy tends to cycle up and down with this age group and is the primary basis for his economic outlook. Is this something you have considered?
I watched that too. Also interesting to considers ARK’s forecast of 40 CAGR over next 5 years. Cathie Wood thinks this is the decade where innovation transforms the world. Tom Lee and C Wood expecting a blowout decade.
The little millennial bump is not near the size of the big boomer bump. Can you explain more please?
Just bought my first BTC today. Hope you guys are right with the Chinese Supply thing 😉
Personally, I believe inflation rate will double in next 6-12 month. I own a business consulting firm in the US, which only focus on US China trades. This time of last year, most of our suppliers in China informed us that after 2021 Chinese New Year will see a 10-20% increase on critical parts such as energy, metal and battery. Not surprisingly, we just received the same notices a week ago, that same critical part will be seen other 10-30% increase after 2022 Chinese New Year.
I feel this time will be a lot worst:
1. there is a massive Covid outbreak going on right now in China, which will cause labor shortage and supply chain obstruction after Chinese New Year.
2. CCP’s 0 Covid policy, sounds stupid and expensive, but that is the reality under a dictatorship. This policy will cause extreme volatile economic downturn in China.
3. President Xi’s 3rd turn will be announce in March of 2022, if that is the case, be prepared – Hell is Coming!
Hi Peter. Will you be doing a crypto update soon?
really great job. I would like to note that the length of the crashes have been getting smaller/diminishing. perhaps from digitization.
GOT I also agree that the FED will go through with their rate hikes, although I think the will be fractional rises and nothing meaningful. Just for show. We can usually expect these announcements at the FOMC monthly meeting minutes but how do you think the market will react? Can we expect short term sell-offs in the market which we should be looking for buying opportunities?