Here is today’s Youtube video:
Quick update on the recent bond market developments:
Both the 10-year and 2-year treasury yields have made significant moves down today. Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations which is leading to increasing growth concerns for the economy (leading investors to seek protection through bonds).
This is coming in the backdrop of what looks like a rollover in inflation expectations. This perhaps could begin to relieve some pressure off the valuation sell-off we’ve seen in equities (more specifically on the technology sector) and could be the fuel for a considerable counter-trend move.
The question is whether earnings revisions to the downside (fuelled by a slowing economy) could trigger additional market volatility.
This comes as we see the advance-decline line begin to move up while the SP500 has printed a lower low. Divergence with the advance-decline can often mark important reversal points: