Thank you for the contrary view on the markets. What I wonder about your conviction analysis is how are ETF’s changing the data signal you are looking at? If you look back at 2008 and 2002 as you do, how much of the market was influenced by S&P and other ETF’s? Would these ETF’s change that signal? In other words if Apple can be propped up with huge options calls as they were last week that then drag up many other stocks via ETF buys that automatically happen, then are these signals you talk about valid or is this market manipulation for the benefit of the people who want a certain outcome before year end. Data on the ground yesterday at the mall showed massive waits to get into stores in the South USA. If people are still purchasing and fully employed will inflation persist? China is still executing lockdowns for some reason and that is keeping oil low, but if they stay locked down supply chains will lock up again a second time. I just see inflation heading back up in 2023 and this is a rally, up to end of year and maybe a little further at best, until we get another CPI print showing inflation drifting back up again. So in the short term I think you may be right and we rally up to mid January or February only to extend the down turn as earnings forecasts are revised downward for next year into the recession that the yield curve is predicting. Thank you Peter for the other side of the coin look. I hope you are correct.
Thank you for the contrary view on the markets. What I wonder about your conviction analysis is how are ETF’s changing the data signal you are looking at? If you look back at 2008 and 2002 as you do, how much of the market was influenced by S&P and other ETF’s? Would these ETF’s change that signal? In other words if Apple can be propped up with huge options calls as they were last week that then drag up many other stocks via ETF buys that automatically happen, then are these signals you talk about valid or is this market manipulation for the benefit of the people who want a certain outcome before year end. Data on the ground yesterday at the mall showed massive waits to get into stores in the South USA. If people are still purchasing and fully employed will inflation persist? China is still executing lockdowns for some reason and that is keeping oil low, but if they stay locked down supply chains will lock up again a second time. I just see inflation heading back up in 2023 and this is a rally, up to end of year and maybe a little further at best, until we get another CPI print showing inflation drifting back up again. So in the short term I think you may be right and we rally up to mid January or February only to extend the down turn as earnings forecasts are revised downward for next year into the recession that the yield curve is predicting. Thank you Peter for the other side of the coin look. I hope you are correct.