Stock Market Returns are GOOD When Lending is EASY | Meanwhile Tech is Still Historically Oversold

Here is an early post of today’s Youtube video:

 

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15 comments

  1. (0) 0
    copyright2010 says:

    @GOT, next entry levels on Nasdaq please.

    1. (9) 9
      GOT says:

      Article with specific levels we’re watching should be posted this weekend.

      1. (0) 0
        Brett says:

        I’m really interested to see if you think we will see lower lows before the rise.

      2. (0) 0
        copyright2010 says:

        @GOT, I traded the bounce off 13150 and sold before resistance as you mentioned about the volatility. I use leverage so i’m waiting for a pull back to go buy back in. The volume has been decreasing so I’m expecting a pull back soon.

  2. (0) 0
    Hutch0321 says:

    How low are we looking at the 10 year yield before tech ie ARK peaks in the coming months. Ordinary you said ARK could peak at around 92-95 but it’s seems like it could get there quickly.

  3. (1) 1
    Maxrothira says:

    New entry for ARKK please. It popped up right when you said, then dropped 25%. I sold out near my entry because I don’t like that volatility. QLD (2x Nasdaq 100) seems to have better risk/reward than ARKK.

    1. (0) 0
      Hutch0321 says:

      I dollar cost averaged. It’s paying off now. Looking for more upside and setting up the next trade.

      1. (0) 0
        Maxrothira says:

        I like your plan.
        I just don’t trust ARKK enough to average down. It is like catching a falling knife.
        I hope if pays off for you and all here who entered. I may dip my toe in again, but I think I like QLD is better.
        I am looking forward to the article coming about the Nasdaq. Less uncertainty there.

    2. (0) 0
      YUAN WANG says:

      volatility is not risk, you probably need to look at the micros of the companies in arkk basket

  4. (0) 0
    Benjamin says:

    I just tried the same graph as you, but the Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards as “Change, Percent”. It looks like ofent times you get a downturn, shortly before the Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards spikes to the positive and the other way round. Happened in 1999, 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020, and now also today. Here is a link to the graph from the FRED:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=N8e9

    1. (1) 1
      GOT says:

      I put the stock market in YOY returns, I don’t see why we would need to put the percentage of domestic banks tightening in YOY changes.
      After all, the objective of the indicator is to tell us whether banks are tightening or not.

      1. (0) 0
        Benjamin says:

        True, but I did not use YOY changes on the Net Percentage – I hope – but from the quarter before. So a high reading means the banks are tightening fast, a low one that the banks are loosening fast. My theory is, that the markets get in trouble when the banks tighten too fast and I believe to see some evidence in the chart I provided.

        1. (0) 0
          Benjamin says:

          Ok, I could have made it more clear: I think the problem for the stock market is the rapid tightening, not the actual tight conditions.

          Also, thank you very much for your content and the time you take to answer our questions.

  5. (1) 1
    niceuser says:

    Would very much appreciate an updated Ratings Across Asset Classes publication, it gives a panoramic view.

  6. (0) 0
    Chan Kok Yu says:

    Peter, you mentioned this S&P500 correction is a late cycle correction which will likely have a strong rally going above the all time high. How long further do you think the market will maintain a rally before it finally tops and goes into a real bear market correction?