Here is today’s Youtube video
We’re currently working on an article that will be covering the statistical significance of the recent moves we’ve seen on the SP500, Junk bonds, and how broad the participation is in this rally (health). We’ll also be looking at some of the recent macro developments to put this into context. This will be followed by a deep research piece on SP500 earnings (and where we believe they’re likely heading) which will be posted on Tuesday.
Thank you Peter and all at GoT, I must admit, I have been dubious recently about your theory for possible assault on ATH, albeit the analysis behind it all was exceptionally informative and extremely high quality, but went along with it with reservations, I just hope it does come to fruition, and hopefully this is the precursor to a substantial move. Thank you for all your efforts, very much appreciated.
This video is not actionable from an investment standpoint imo. Hopefully future videos will clarify.
Every bear stock analyst I follow, bears who believe we eventually get new lows short term, has been predicting an oversold rally. So that’s not something unique to this site. The bears are all over this rally also. I honestly don’t know anyone in the bear or bull camp who hasn’t been predicting a rally due to the speed of the sell off and the extremes in investor sentiment.
So are you calling a bottom? And short term rally to ATH? Or are you calling a bear market rally like almost everyone else is also doing?
The difference between those two is massive for putting cash to work here.
Seems like just a couple months back he was so sure of a late-cycle rally to the ATH but now he’s not so sure
Sorry for the intervention. I have been *trading* and not forecasting the markets since 1998 (Russian crisis), so the least I’d expect you to call me is being inexperienced. Your point of view is absolutely irrelevant and out of subject. Watching & trading the markets does not mean that you try to forecast the markets. We are not prophets, we are not future tellers. We try to anticipate the moves and extrapolate a feasible scenario with higher probabilities so as to profit from market moves.
Watching the bulls and bears does not do any good. Having an opinion is usually wrong. IMHO the author here presents some hard to see facts, hidden realities, so as to help you examine the current situation with more clear sight and objective approach. To announce a move to ATH or a bear market rally, does not offer anything. The author presents the facts perfectly fine with objectivity and clarity so as you judge and make appropriate acts for your portfolio. If you are searching for prophets, you can visit some other sites…
Thanks Peter. Already looking forward to Tuesday’s post on earnings
Thank you for this update!
Thank you Peter! Looking forward to Tuesday article, hoping it come out early in a day. Peter, taking into account recent developments, can you please make an update of Ratings across asset classes, as it is very important to understand where to head now.
When planning the next few in-depth articles, could you please look at exit points for stocks and what to move into… and the model portfolio you talked about would be great.
Forward earnings can be great leading indicators of actual earnings over the next 52 weeks. The exception is that analysts typically don\’t see recessions coming. When these events are obvious to everyone, they scramble to slash their estimates. In 2008, we had a case where the NYSE went up for multiple consecutive sessions and then fell another 27-28%. Need to watch the markets closely for indications of an uptrend or a downtrend this week.