Is Rising Unemployment Really a Risk to the Market in 2022? | Goods Spending Collapsed, So Is This Time Different?

Over the last week of trading, we’ve yet again witnessed a variety of extreme and rare market moves. However, since the last SP500 tactical update, the SP500 has been virtually flat. Tomorrow, in this week’s SP500 tactical update, we’ll dive into these extreme internal market developments to understand what they mean for equity markets looking forward. We’ll also be looking at key SP500 sectors and internal market developments such as the divergence we are currently seeing between the stock and bond markets:

In the meantime, don’t hesitate to watch today’s Youtube video giving an entertaining twist on some of the recent work we’ve done on the unemployment rate in 2022 and how much of a risk it is to the market.

Here is the link the complete research piece.

 

 

 

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6 comments

  1. (1) 1
    MOK says:

    We are overdue for a relief rally, but it will be interesting to see how much follow through comes with it.
    For me knowing that the majority of politicians are professional liars & institutions operate in line with Niccolo Machiavelli’s view is where most of my scepticism lies.
    The government & institutional data is manipulated via new updated formulas & changes in eligibility requirements to hide the truth IMO.
    Fundamental analysis is almost deliberately overcomplicated & relying on such manipulated data carries risks that are equally complicated in assessing that risk position.
    I think fundamentals are best for slow moving Macro strategies & longer swing trades as that allows the truth to eventually show itself of which I believe is GOT’s main investment strategy is.
    I do enjoy the in depth analysis as it feeds me info for my 12mth + investments, but have a bias towards technical price action to keep things simple for myself as I’m more involved in short term trading strategies.

    1. (1) 1
      additionalgamma says:

      The bank of japan helped the rally today. This is good for the people forcing people out of aggressive shorts and puts. Playing the counter rallies correctly can be very profitable but you have to be in and out because more bad news is coming every other day.

  2. (0) 0
    hatoori86 says:

    Great video. Once again. BTW have you factored in the permanent loss of 2-3% of the workforce during the pandemic?

  3. (1) 1
    ggb58 says:

    Appreciate any video or study on recent Saudi Arabia plan to join Brics. This has enormous ramifications to our economy and has changed all of my personal financial planning objectives. Have I read into this incorrectly or did we just get confirmation to the end of the petro dollar? Has the monetary policy of the USA caused this movement away from the US reserve currency as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned? Has the green energy movement anything to do with this? As we know, it already initiated new petrol trading in other currencies. Is this the end of the US dollar as a reserve currency?

  4. (1) 1
    Hutch0321 says:

    Good time to dip into TLT especially if the dollar is rolling over.

  5. (0) 0
    Bjarni Thors says:

    Thanks so much for great analysis! I have a theory… the unemployment statistics are false indicator. After Covid lots of people found the internet during these times and found new ways to earn like on youtube, ecommerce and many more. So there surely is a big portion of those who lost their jobs, created their own incomestream.. hence the number of job openings.. I think the same thing is going on all around the world. Governments are using broken compass imo.