Hey Peter and team,
Great material and thoughts as always! I’m wondering if and what would tilt your views towards potentially shorting S$P? I know your portfolio is very defensive but correct me if I’m wrong shorting is a strategy that Game Of Trade would highlight. Happy to hear your thoughts
S&P is holding up surprisingly well as they just discussed. My guess is there is a strong possibility that stocks move sideways for the next year or two. Thus, TLT and VIX options has a better risk / reward ratio than shorting S&P for the next 12 months.
That said, for the short term, I think this is a great time to short S&P. Unfortunately, I don’t have the risk appetite.
I’m wondering if the recent rise in FED’s balance sheet can really be called QE like many said in the news. This time, it’s not the FED buying securities like treasury bonds from banks, but some banks borrowing loans from the FED, which I presume cannot be lent out or used for investments. Perhaps this could be a topic GOT could discuss in a future macro note.
Great stuff! You mentioned that in 2008 the balance sheet expansion didn’t move the markets. Correct me if I’m wrong but the market didn’t bottom out until March 2009 when the mark to market accounting rule was removed. Would the current environment with M2M rules eliminated negate the 2008 scenario?
Hey Peter and team,
Great material and thoughts as always! I’m wondering if and what would tilt your views towards potentially shorting S$P? I know your portfolio is very defensive but correct me if I’m wrong shorting is a strategy that Game Of Trade would highlight. Happy to hear your thoughts
S&P is holding up surprisingly well as they just discussed. My guess is there is a strong possibility that stocks move sideways for the next year or two. Thus, TLT and VIX options has a better risk / reward ratio than shorting S&P for the next 12 months.
That said, for the short term, I think this is a great time to short S&P. Unfortunately, I don’t have the risk appetite.
I’m wondering if the recent rise in FED’s balance sheet can really be called QE like many said in the news. This time, it’s not the FED buying securities like treasury bonds from banks, but some banks borrowing loans from the FED, which I presume cannot be lent out or used for investments. Perhaps this could be a topic GOT could discuss in a future macro note.
SILJ is outperforming the metal could a large move be near?
Great stuff! You mentioned that in 2008 the balance sheet expansion didn’t move the markets. Correct me if I’m wrong but the market didn’t bottom out until March 2009 when the mark to market accounting rule was removed. Would the current environment with M2M rules eliminated negate the 2008 scenario?