History Shows Us That This Will End Within 5 Months. | SP500 Volatility Is at a Pivotal Moment

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    additionalgamma says:

    Thank you Peter for addressing this. I continue to maintain that we are in a one in 100 year situation that should be worse than the three rare instances you site. Why worse: 1. Pandemic end 2. WW3 3. Titans falling. 1. China the #2 economy is just entering Covid and is not as prepared as America or EU was and supply chains could be really hit hard. The whiplash effect on the back end will have us with way too many computer chips, overpriced EV\’s and other supplies that were hard to get and double ordered. 2. We don\’t want to admit it but we are in World War 3 we are just outsourcing the fighting to the men of Russia and men/women of Ukraine – NATO countries are supplying weapons and Iran, NK, China are supplying Russia. Russia just committed another 1.3 million troops and is reorienting its economy for war machine production. China wants us to use up our weapons before it moves on Taiwan and reserve stock of missiles and ammo are very low like the SPR 3. The Titans of the S&P indexes are falling… AAPL and TSLA. Apple has 98% production in a communist country that is in deep trouble and is likely to act out against Taiwan or the US to distract from troubles at home. Tesla has 3 major new factories (one in China). These cash furnaces are just now coming online and sales are dropping off in China and now USA. Tesla will fill EU demand soon and not need that capacity in Germany. Valued as a car company, not a growth company, TSLA would be about $35 a share, he just lost 65% in 45 days. If Apple joins in and Tesla accelerates down the S&P index logic will drag everything down until we hit Vix 55 and capitulation. Elon will sell more shares to save SpaceX, his true love. What we have is a world wide inflation out of control, labor shortage of massive scale and tightening central banks all at once. We look to be headed into a massive crash. Thank you for pointing out it can happen and what it will look like, I just think it will be worse than 2008 because we never really recovered from that and we are worse off going into this one. The pandemic is NOT over, it just seems that way to us in the USA and EU.

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    Ed Kennedy says:

    Your optimism challenges us to resist the fear of buying the top and to continue buying as the market falls toward a possible capitulation, believing there’ll be huge rewards in a reversal. But perhaps the reward will turn out to a wash, and who can stand the seemly unrelenting 20-40% negative pain? I’m trying but after filling my coffers over the past month, yesterday I unloaded 1/3 of my holdings.

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    TRIPLE B says:

    Interestingly insightful comments that i had not even considered regarding video and comments section. Much appreciated. My views differ to most as I’m assuming this is all baked into stock market valuations. (I can’t bake www3 into a market valuation as there is no market if there is no habitable planet etc which i believe www3 would be).

    I like to keep it simple,and I’ll summarise my basic thought logically.

    My lettuce costs $1, down from $12 a year ago, my tbone steak prices got ramped up a year ago but continue to be on a weekly ‘special’, my car valuation has fallen dramatically according to my new insurance quote, and my home town restaurant’s are hiding a bizarre 5% inflation surcharge on menus in small typo, after hiking prices 9 months ago. My mortgage repayments have nearly doubled so I cant spend and computers and technology in the shops are at price war levels at the moment.

    Property valuation are falling sharply which will lead to lower rents and mortgages, and I will be able to build up my ‘ mortgage protection pot’ again in due course. I do sssume we’re near peak interest rates which will relieve some of the arguments circling around wage hikes. I’m not sure of the ongoing effects around employee shortages but immigration is happening again and should relieve.

    Anyhow, im waffling here, in a nut shell I believe a huge number of businesses have hiked and continue to hike because they can get away with it and not because they have to.

    My conclusion. Only an increase in commodity prices raises inflation. Inflation will fall dramatically because commodity prices have been falling. Supply chains have diversified more than most think. Inflation is the primary driver of stock market valuation and because of this, and the huge number of people that are shorting the market, and the evidence Peter presents, I’ve gone long the stock markets as of today. It’s not a short term investment, it just looks like there’s so much value to be had at moment.