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Peter, where was the AAII reading back in 2000? I saw in your video you referenced back to around 2004. Considering how many ppl are comparing now to the 2000 bubble and impending FED tightening cycle then, I’d be interested to see AAII then vs now. Meanwhile, thanks for all your great work.
@dshephard, September 1998 had a similar structure in price action and the AAI bulls ratio, however the ratio was ar 36% whereas now its ar 19%. Afterwards, there was a huge move for over a year until it peaked.
AAII never once dipped below 20 in the 90s. Not sure what to conclude from it, equities had been rallying non-stop for 20 consecutive years…. bears were virtually extinct by the end of the run.
I have been wondering, is it completely intentional you are not mentioining the situation in Ukraine like it does not exist at all? Oil keeps running very hot and fear is increasing toward this weekend like it is a pure co-incident. I understand if that is a conscious choise but it just feels quite weird, to leave the elephant in the room just hanging there. But let’s be honest, it affects the market short term
Great question! It’s not necessarily “intentional”, for now, I don’t think it should affect our current thesis. This is the type of event to pay attention to when the market is at all-time highs (where there’s clear complacency leaving the market vulnerable to a switch in the narrative), right now the dominant narrative is clearly bearish and leaves much more room for improvement.
We did state that the Ukraine-Russia conflict adds uncertainty to the oil trade if tensions rise. For now oil is still trading within its channel, a breakout (which all other factors considered should not happen) would clearly signal that the market is beginning to price in an escalation of the situation in Ukraine.
A spike in oil prices would accentuate concerns over inflation and a hawkish fed which could lead to some more market volatility.
Right now from a macro standpoint, things point to an equity rally. Geopolitics can delay (or accelerate) macro trades like the equity rally or falling oil prices (which is what I believe is currently happening) or it can actually influence the underlying macro which would force us to change our thesis (for now, I do not think this is justified).
Thank you answering. I like the poibts you made there. I am almost starting to consider the invasion is to some extent priced in as the news are looking so concerning with all tgat doom and gloom. US500 IS barely holding the double bottom right now. I have consercative long open with VEry tight SL if the double bottom fails to hold some hedging my other holdings is probably needed i.e. have to flip to shoty yo protect the rest of the portfolio
How does falling rates 10 yr effect your Bitcoin thesis? Are you expecting a resumption in yields after a rally in Bonds? Or for Bitcoin to rally with equities?
A lot of money that has come out of the bond market is now waiting for signs that the bullish momentum is renewing on equities and crypto (along with an improvement of the dominant narrative along with news headlines). A consolidation in bond yields would help with that.
Peter, I am loathe to disagree with you. You are right way more than you are wrong. As it pertains to oil this is a play I would prefer to stay on the sidelines. I don’t disagree with your chart analysis, but charts are charts and geopolitical issues can/will supersede charts. If Russia does not invade I have no doubt your will be right. Right now we are in “no man’s land.” in my humble opinion. If Russia invades there could be a cascade of unpredictable events. I just don’t think oil is worthy of the risk at his juncture.
I agree. I am also not shorting oil until we truly now what is going to happen with Russia/Ukraine. I personally think it is nothing but political posturing and a reason to increase military arms to certain countries but I feel it is a risky trade to short oil.
You’re absolutely correct, as I mentioned in my previous premium video on oil, the Ukraine conflict adds uncertainty to the oil trade and investors should be aware of that.
Nice video. Agree that zigging when everyone is zagging can be a smart play. I am skeptical that institutional money that is hoarding cash now is going to plow that money back into equities in the short term when everyone seems to be anticipating a large correction.
I completely agree, this is not he time to panic. The bond market has stabilized in the short term. However, we still have geopolitical events and indecisiveness from the FED which weighs heavily on investor sentiment. I am not predicting a rally or sell off in the stock market in the next few weeks, just saying it is a sketchy time to be investing given current events. As long as the bond market is stable the stock market will rally soon… but no one knows when and I am not putting any time limit on it personally.
@GOT Where can we get the BofA Fund Managers graphs?
@GOT I am not getting email alerts for new videos, is there anything I need to do or can be done so I get the alerts? Thanks
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Yes, you can modify your notification settings under my account. If this does not solve your notification issue, make sure to contact customer support by filling the contact us form:
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Peter, where was the AAII reading back in 2000? I saw in your video you referenced back to around 2004. Considering how many ppl are comparing now to the 2000 bubble and impending FED tightening cycle then, I’d be interested to see AAII then vs now. Meanwhile, thanks for all your great work.
@dshephard, September 1998 had a similar structure in price action and the AAI bulls ratio, however the ratio was ar 36% whereas now its ar 19%. Afterwards, there was a huge move for over a year until it peaked.
Sorry its at 30%now
AAII never once dipped below 20 in the 90s. Not sure what to conclude from it, equities had been rallying non-stop for 20 consecutive years…. bears were virtually extinct by the end of the run.
Investor’s may have cash on the side and just not allocate back to stocks. Gold is climbing fast, Europe and EM gaining momentum too
I have been wondering, is it completely intentional you are not mentioining the situation in Ukraine like it does not exist at all? Oil keeps running very hot and fear is increasing toward this weekend like it is a pure co-incident. I understand if that is a conscious choise but it just feels quite weird, to leave the elephant in the room just hanging there. But let’s be honest, it affects the market short term
Great question! It’s not necessarily “intentional”, for now, I don’t think it should affect our current thesis. This is the type of event to pay attention to when the market is at all-time highs (where there’s clear complacency leaving the market vulnerable to a switch in the narrative), right now the dominant narrative is clearly bearish and leaves much more room for improvement.
We did state that the Ukraine-Russia conflict adds uncertainty to the oil trade if tensions rise. For now oil is still trading within its channel, a breakout (which all other factors considered should not happen) would clearly signal that the market is beginning to price in an escalation of the situation in Ukraine.
A spike in oil prices would accentuate concerns over inflation and a hawkish fed which could lead to some more market volatility.
Right now from a macro standpoint, things point to an equity rally. Geopolitics can delay (or accelerate) macro trades like the equity rally or falling oil prices (which is what I believe is currently happening) or it can actually influence the underlying macro which would force us to change our thesis (for now, I do not think this is justified).
Thank you answering. I like the poibts you made there. I am almost starting to consider the invasion is to some extent priced in as the news are looking so concerning with all tgat doom and gloom. US500 IS barely holding the double bottom right now. I have consercative long open with VEry tight SL if the double bottom fails to hold some hedging my other holdings is probably needed i.e. have to flip to shoty yo protect the rest of the portfolio
How does falling rates 10 yr effect your Bitcoin thesis? Are you expecting a resumption in yields after a rally in Bonds? Or for Bitcoin to rally with equities?
A lot of money that has come out of the bond market is now waiting for signs that the bullish momentum is renewing on equities and crypto (along with an improvement of the dominant narrative along with news headlines). A consolidation in bond yields would help with that.
This is exactly why the 60/40 portfolio allocation pension funds employ will eventually lead to deflation.
Peter, I am loathe to disagree with you. You are right way more than you are wrong. As it pertains to oil this is a play I would prefer to stay on the sidelines. I don’t disagree with your chart analysis, but charts are charts and geopolitical issues can/will supersede charts. If Russia does not invade I have no doubt your will be right. Right now we are in “no man’s land.” in my humble opinion. If Russia invades there could be a cascade of unpredictable events. I just don’t think oil is worthy of the risk at his juncture.
I agree. I am also not shorting oil until we truly now what is going to happen with Russia/Ukraine. I personally think it is nothing but political posturing and a reason to increase military arms to certain countries but I feel it is a risky trade to short oil.
You’re absolutely correct, as I mentioned in my previous premium video on oil, the Ukraine conflict adds uncertainty to the oil trade and investors should be aware of that.
Peter,
Nice video. Agree that zigging when everyone is zagging can be a smart play. I am skeptical that institutional money that is hoarding cash now is going to plow that money back into equities in the short term when everyone seems to be anticipating a large correction.
Fellow YouTuber Steve is licking his lips.
I completely agree, this is not he time to panic. The bond market has stabilized in the short term. However, we still have geopolitical events and indecisiveness from the FED which weighs heavily on investor sentiment. I am not predicting a rally or sell off in the stock market in the next few weeks, just saying it is a sketchy time to be investing given current events. As long as the bond market is stable the stock market will rally soon… but no one knows when and I am not putting any time limit on it personally.
Hello GOT. Great content, as usual. Would you short oil buy shorting XLE?
Anybody happy to be in the Nasdaq or S&P at the moment?
– Many believe that Wall St and the Fed, both have interest in letting the S&P go to 3600.