Economic Surprise Index is Back to Bullish | CPI and Recessions

Here is today’s Youtube video:


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  1. (0) 0
    PCDF5691 says:

    Great post as always, thank you.

  2. (4) 4
    Alan Lowrie says:

    At the end of the video you reference the exit of risk-on vehicles for more risk-off assets like bonds, gold and cash. In prior discussions, you’ve talked about cash and bonds not being advantageous because of inflation/debasement (cash) the Fed cannot let rates increase to avoid default (bonds). While I can see a move to gold/silver, help me reconcile what seem like counter-suggestions regarding cash and bonds. Maybe you already have some material that walks through this.

    Thanks, helpful content as always!

    1. (4) 4
      GOT says:

      Yes, apologies for the ending of the video, it was not well executed. A large risk-on move throughout the last few years followed by a tightening of monetary policy could eventually lead to a rapid unwind of the gains seen in risk-on assets.

      Any sort of tighter monetary policy in the current economic environment would lead a serious downturn and deleverage of financial assets (in particular equities). In this environment, we would expect gold, cash and bonds to outperform most other assets.

      Hope this clarifies the outlook!

    2. (0) 0
      Brian C says:

      Can we please learn more about the relationship between Bitcoin and equities? Does a stock market crash necessarily drag Bitcoin down with it? Or, possibly Bitcoin becomes a safe haven?

  3. (4) 4
    em.b858 says:

    Always appreciate the clear, concise, reliable and accurate market coverage.

    However, this Economic Surprise Index video was a little confusing. In the first part of the video, GoT sentiment seems bullish. Yes, there might be potential for a pullback in the upward run i.e. “still an expansion of the federal balance sheet so it’s unlikely that it’s going to create any downturn”.

    But then the video ends with: “I do think that it’s possible that we start to see a massive exit out of US equities, out of cryptocurrencies, out of bitcoin, etc and into risk-off assets”.

    Are you saying it is time to exit or consider exiting or taking profits in equities and bitcoin?

    1. (3) 3
      GOT says:

      You can check out my response above! In summary, until the federal reserve has begun to tighten policy there is not reason to look for a risk-off move.

  4. (1) 1
    David R says:

    Agree with em.b858. Was part of the audio cut out?

  5. (1) 1
    gwongtravel says:

    i am confused by the video as well…

  6. (1) 1
    ksouvenir says:

    What Peter want to said in simple English form is risk off asset mean physical gold, physical cash, physical paper bond out perform everything else on this planet earth during the bear market. While everything drop 80%, only gold, physical cash and bond paper will only drop 40% cut the risk 50% discount.