Current Rate Hike Probabilities Suggests Hiking Cycle is Baked into the Market

Here is an early post of today’s Youtube video:

Tune in for our article later today covering:

  • Peak inflation and how it’s going to impact the market



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  1. (0) 0
    Giacomo Fontanot says:

    Great content! Thank you

    1. (0) 0
      Frank Lakinski says:

      Peter, this video also stops abruptly around the 8min mark!

      1. (0) 0
        Frank Lakinski says:

        It’s working now. Thanks for fixing!

  2. (0) 0
    2-Emotional Investor says:

    There’s a lot of chatter among the msnbc crowd about a Volker style raise. What are your thoughts on likelihood and impact of that ?

    1. (0) 0
      AA says:

      I think that is a bit unlikely. If you draw an imaginary down trendline for fed funds, the market seems to break at a lower number of rate hikes every cycle.

      However, it seems that the fed is echoing a lot of what they intend ahead of time. You can see from the CME tool that the market is currently expecting 0.75% rate hike in May. Therefore, if that comes to pass, it might still be positive for the market as it meets their expectations.

  3. (2) 2
    Mikado says:

    Hi Peter,
    back again 🙂
    great researched information.
    It’s just fun to follow your view of the big picture and to recognize and understand the economic and political developments in their effect on business
    thx a lot

  4. (4) 4
    Nicholas Belgau says:

    Hey Peter, the new Thumbs up/down icons are kind of cool. I wanted to mention that there’s an issue where you can’t go back and change your selection if you accidently thumbs down instead of up.

  5. (4) 4
    Jason Reed says:

    Just wanted to say how appreciative I am of your humbleness regarding your previous winning calls. I can’t tell you how many people on TWTR and YouTube I’ve stopped following or watching because they spend 50% or more of their time just talking about how amazing their calls or indicators or analysis, etc. are. It gets hard to listen to after a while. Your analysis has been amazing and you don’t brag about it but just will refer back to it when it’s pertinent. Just gotta say I appreciate your style and you let the work speak for itself.

  6. (0) 0
    Timothy Lewman says:

    Your analysis is great, raising short term rates is only one tool in the Fed’s toolbelt. I don’t see any mention of QT, Fed not buying and maybe even selling MBS and Bond assets. We’ll see what happens in May when they meet and have an announcement on QT plans going forward. I’m hard pressed to be as bullish as you are, I think the Fed actively trying to kill the economy by removing credit and loans is a train I don’t want to step in front of.

  7. (0) 0
    rocks2stocks says:

    Please include QT in your discussion of FOMC actions. QT has the potential to affect markets more than baked-in rate hikes. The level of certainty about the May 4 FFTR hike may be high, but what is the certainty about balance sheet reduction? And at what maturities will the Fed reduce its holdings? The combination of rate hikes and QT has landed the Fed in the hot seat in recent times.

  8. (3) 3
    ggb58 says:

    I wonder what is spooking the market today if rates are already discounted? Tech is getting killed in last few days.

  9. (0) 0
    Sam Foster says:

    You have not replied to my email of last week – You have charged me twice for one month – #300157 and #292829.

    Why have you not replied or done anything to sort this out? If I don’t hear from you today I will be asking my card provider for a chargeback.

    1. (0) 0
      AA says:

      @GOT I have this issue too among others in here. Could you please check with the payment processor and figure out a solution for this double billing?

      1. (0) 0
        GOT says:

        @Sam Foster customer service is on it

        1. (0) 0
          Sam Foster says:

          Customer service appears to have been ‘on it’ for 3 weeks now and in that time I have not had so much as an email from you, let alone a repayment.

          I’m not sure the word ‘service’ is appropriate.

  10. (1) 1
    Phillip says:

    You say the Fed may not pivot till June/July/August and you think the market just goes sideways from here till then?

  11. (0) 0
    Stealth says:

    @GOT How did you get your “percent difference between price & MA” indicator to show negative values?

    Thank you!

  12. (0) 0
    2-Emotional Investor says:

    The fed confirmed the 50bp raise everyone expected, yet this tanked the market. So fed actions not baked in apparently. Also qt about to remove much market liquidity. Seems very risky to invest in still inflated equities in such conditions.

    Specific question: do you see stocks like tsla, that are growing rapidly and generating cash, dropping with the overall market decline going forward ?