Attempting to Predict Bitcoin’s 2022 Top Based on Treasury Yields

Here is an early post of today’s Youtube video:

 

 

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20 comments

  1. (0) 0
    copyright2010 says:

    I was looking at that relationship a few months back as well! Good to see I’m on the right track.

  2. (0) 0
    Gold Finger says:

    Great video once again 😀

  3. (1) 1
    Hutch0321 says:

    You out did yourself on this one. What do you make of lengthening of the duration of each bull run? Seems like a way of frustrating investors out of the asset. Perhaps if there is a mathematical relationship we can pinpoint a time frame.

  4. (0) 0
    jaklein19 says:

    Assuming the macro economy continues to exhibit real growth, then the correlation with yields (interest rate) should hold. And we should continue to also be in a risk-on environment. If higher yields are a symptom of stagflation, how BTC responds remains TBD. Of course, other supply / demand factors (less BTC available as miner financing increases HODL with more buying from institutions) could still drive BTC higher.

  5. (0) 0
    akumta says:

    Awesome video again exactly when BTC is trying to breakout. Thank you Peter @GOT the 130K PT is inline with this chart “https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/P9Vr8bVw-BTC-Quality-VS-Quantity-In-Trading/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_publish”

  6. (0) 0
    Luke P says:

    Great video Peter, thanks!

  7. (0) 0
    Maxrothira says:

    @GOT: I really like this correlation and 2.8 multiplier. Great stuff. How do you fit in the fact that the yeald on the 10 year has generally been going down while bitcoin has been going up over the past decade?

  8. (0) 0
    M CELIAN MATHIS says:

    Thanks Peter, I always enjoy watching your analysis because they are great ! When I look at the 10 Y chart since 1990 on Tradingview, it seems that 2.75-2.80% could look like to be a long term resistance, don’t you think so? (This would mean that Bitcoin final cycle price would reach $170K with your ratio in that case). Such a move would fit very neatly with the increasing volatility magnitude that this bond yield has since 2008 (before 2008 the magnitude of the moves to the upside/downside were softer than the post 2008 era).

  9. (1) 1
    carredondo04 says:

    Once again I know it takes a lot of time to analyze data and make these videos, which is appreciated. But a lot of the videos lately are posted one to two days after a move has happened. Don’t get me wrong I do watch all your videos and did play BTC before the breakout and added on the breakout. I would just like to see your analysis up until the date you post your videos, not analysis from 1-3 days prior to the posting. But once again I love the analysis.

  10. (0) 0
    David Higgins says:

    Fascinating. I have it charted on log scale and technically it looks like it will start to break out in either direction very early March. No doubt the landscape of policy and other global factors between now and then will dictate the direction of the outcome.
    With that timing it could well be a critical signal to consider as to whether to stay for longer or sell down bitcoin positions

  11. (0) 0
    PCDF5691 says:

    Great video as always guys, and everything works mathematically, it will be extremely interesting to see if this concept holds….

  12. (3) 3
    Abzorba says:

    Peter and others, in case anyone finds it useful: I was inspired by Peter’s post to create some Tradingview indicators to help me see the relationship between bonds and BTC.

    Indicator 1: Bonds/BTC divergence – https://www.tradingview.com/script/QiCGyQLE-Abz-Bonds-BTC-divergence/
    Indicator 2: Bond returns – https://www.tradingview.com/script/vyBVIcB9-Abz-Bond-returns/

  13. (1) 1
    additionalgamma says:

    Happy Holidays to all that are celebrating. Interesting analysis Peter. Additional work on ETH on the same data would be helpful if you get time. Since it looks more and more like it could take the lead from BTC does it react the same or different. ETH will go through a big change if/when they finish migration from POW to POS and the gas fees dramatically reduce. That may take until the end of next year at their current pace. Because of that dynamic maybe a similar analysis of SOL since it doesn’t have the gas fees and speed issues right now. Santa, please bring Peter two good new microphones, he is a valuable voice for the kids out there, not to have at least one back up… <:) The big question remains, can the FED let prices go very high? what happens to the price of the dollar as other currencies collapse into the USD?

  14. (0) 0
    Eventide says:

    Such interesting analysis. Loved it. Thanks Peter

  15. (1) 1
    mattcgaff says:

    HI Peter and Team GOT – I just re-watched a Cathie Wood video talking about velocity of money, and that it remains very low, which speaks to consumers not spending their money. Which is why Cathie Wood argued against Jack Dorsey’s inflation fears. I suspect we will have a short term counter rally in yield’s and it feel like we will because it is what everyone expects but as I write that – maybe that is why we will not. Can you weigh-in re the velocity of money? thanks

    1. (1) 1
      Jeff Little says:

      HI Peter and Team GOT – I just re-watched a Cathie Wood video talking about velocity of money, and that it remains very low, which speaks to consumers not spending their money.

      Velocity of money is perhaps one of the most poorly understood things in the economics punditry community. Velocity of Money has been on a trendline in the general direction of 0 ever since Reaganomics was passed in the mid-1980s. It is true that it is at historic lows. There is a paradox in economics – The most effective way to increase median savings rate is to start by decreasing *average* savings rates, as it is precisely the effectiveness of the top 1% at saving that makes it hard for the rest of us. Of course 90% of economics pundits work directly or indirectly for that 1%.

      Velocity of money is not slowing because people in the bottom 90% are choosing to save more. Velocity of money is slowing because people in the bottom 90% are pegged at near 100% spending and their wallets are shrinking as a percentage of the overall economy. The only long term fix for this is a repeal of Reaganomics and a return to a new deal of some sort. This will unfortunately come with some economic disruption.

      1. (2) 2
        Jeff Little says:

        I forgot to mention. With Velocity of Money this close to zero, small whipsaws in either direction can have huge effects. See Minsky and stability begetting instability and all that.

      2. (0) 0
        mattcgaff says:

        Hi Jeff – thank you, I really appreciate your response.

  16. (0) 0
    Jeff Little says:

    If you are right then that points to a top in BTC around June-Oct 2023. Note that BTC will be a smaller percentage of the cryptocurrency market by then and the relationship might hold up better with an all-coin market cap index (does such a thing exist?). A bit wildcard is critical mass on whichever digital universe “wins” (I have no idea which that would be or even if the winner exists yet).

    Also note that the 2.8 ratio hasn’t worked when interest rates have moved in the other direction (2023-2025? Is there room for another leg down?).

  17. (0) 0
    oldmancool says:

    Very good analysis Peter! Keep it up pls 🙂